Thread by @mbmpolicy

Our new blog considers international evidence and the risks of reframing the sex question in the next UK census as one about self-declared gender identity. murrayblackburnmackenzie.org/2020/11/30/int…

At the time of writing, the three UK census authorities (ONS, NRS and NISRA) are planning to provide guidance to accompany the sex question in the next census, which will advise respondents that they can answer based on their self-defined gender identity.

Reframing the long-standing sex question, in effect conflating sex and gender identity in the same question, has prompted criticism from leading quantitative social scientists, in particular, highlighting the risks to data reliability at a sub-group level.
thetimes.co.uk/article/sex-qu…

In September 2020, as part of its ongoing accreditation assessment of the census, the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) wrote to the ONS, questioning their assumption that the impact of the guidance on data quality would be negligible. osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/upl…

The size and nature of the UK transgender population is unknown. While it is reasonable to expect some variation in terms of sex and age, with higher proportions among younger age-groups, one of the key difficulties is estimating what these proportions might look like.

Our blog considers the population data available in some other jurisdictions. We consider data from China, New Zealand, Sweden, the Netherlands and Taiwan. Taking an overview of these studies, two observations can be drawn.

Firstly, for the most part, among young people the proportion of females reporting as transgender is consistently higher than that of males. This pattern is also evident in referrals to UK Gender Identity Development Services, where the number of girls outstrips that of boys.

Second, and equally striking is the variation in prevalence, both between different countries, and over time, with higher proportions reported in more recent studies. Both these factors make it difficult to estimate what similar figures might look like in the UK.

Against this varied international backdrop, without reliable UK data, and in what appears to be a period of rapid societal change in relation to self-declared gender identity, reframing the sex question in the next census should be ringing loud warning bells with ONS, NRS & NISRA