CASP14 #s just came out and they’re astounding—DeepMind looks to have solved protein structure prediction. Median GDT_TS went from 68.5 (CASP13) to 92.4!!!! Cf. their 2nd best CASP13 struct scored 92.8 (out of 100). Median RMSD is 2.1Å. I think it's over predictioncenter.org/casp14/zscores…
These are for single domains-not whole proteins-and there are a few poor predictions. So corner cases remain but core problem appears solved: 88% of predictions are <4Å, 76% <3Å, 46% <2Å. Unlike last time where there was some competition, this time AF2 was best for 88/97 targets.
DeepMind's blogpost: deepmind.com/blog/article/a…
Nature's write-up: nature.com/articles/d4158…
CASP's official press release: predictioncenter.org/casp14/doc/CAS…
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