Our first report is up @CSPICenterOrg. George Hawley and I take on many of the myths of the Trump era, and take issue with national populism, an ideology that seeks to reorient Republican politics towards working-class concerns. 1/n cspicenter.org/the-national-p…
This view holds that economic concerns explain the rise of Trump, and Republicans moving away from dogmatic free market positions can help them build a working-class coalition and achieve electoral success. We show why data do not support this story. 2/n 
The economic explanation of Trumpism is not only popular with national populists, but thinkers outside that circle, such as @charlesmurray and @sullydish. Also, Republican politicians. Here's Ted Cruz from a few days ago, and Rubio from earlier this month. 3/n
Culture, not economics, mostly drives voting behavior, and support for Trump specifically. Here are two figures that illustrate the point. Cultural attitudes and demographics are predictive, education less so, and income least of all. 4/n
We also did an analysis in which we investigated whether Republican members of Congress who broke with their party on economic questions did better in their reelection bids in 2016 and 2018. We find they did not. 5/n
While most voters are partisans, there is a minority that is up for grabs. Evidence shows they make decisions based on economic results, like GDP growth, not policy specifics. Voters really don't care about trade, arguably national populists' signature issue. 6/n
Trump's presidency backs up this view. He governed mostly like a typical Republican, pushing tax cuts and a repeal of Obamacare. Yet his economy was good, especially pre-Covid, and voters gave him higher marks on that issue than anything else. 7/n
In overall voting patterns, 2020 was not very different from 2016, which was not very different from 2012. Democrats still won the majority of those making less than $50,000 a year, while Trump won those making over $100,000. 8/n
Culture remains the center of our politics, which means that neither party is going to gain much by adopting a new economic agenda. Any hope of gaining an electoral windfall would have to be through leaning in on popular cultural positions, or ultimately shifting the culture. 9/n
We do not take a position on the economic merits of any particular agenda. Nonetheless, scholars, pundits, activists and politicians should all want a more data-driven understanding of American politics. 10/n
Misunderstanding Trumpism, or voting Republican more generally, as about economics rather than culture makes for poor electoral strategy on either side, and also makes it more difficult to address genuine grievances that certain subsets of the population have. 11/n
If the hope is to decrease polarization and facilitate understanding, theories that seek to explain Trumpism and our modern political cleavages through economics stand in the way. 12/n
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