Thread by @Sandra_Cuffe

Today could be a make-it-or-break-it day for the future of #Guatemala and it encapsulates the last 2+ years of borderline constitutional crisis. Just as the current unrest isn't really about the budget, the well-known CICIG crisis wasn't really about CICIG. Here's a BRIEF THREAD:

#Guatemala's Constitutional Court is the country's highest court and it is the ultimate check on abuse of power across all three branches of government: executive (presidency), legislative (unicameral congress), and judicial (other courts, including the Supreme Court). 2/?

In recent years, the Constitutional Court has been one of the only things somewhat standing in the way of an informal alliance known as the "Pact of the Corrupt," involving successive presidents, congress reps and judges all protecting each other's immunity from prosecution. 3/?

During the last administration, of Jimmy Morales, this so-called pact began waging an ongoing political war on the institutions that have have been upholding rule of law in the face of systemic corruption: the Constitutional Court, FECI, PDH, and CICIG (spelled out below). 4/?

FECI is the Special Anti-Impunity Prosecutor's Bureau. It worked in tandem with CICIG, the UN-backed International Commission Against Impunity in #Guatemala, shut down by president Morales after he was accused of corruption. PDH is the Office of the Human Rights Ombudsman. 5/?

There was a lot of international attention on CICIG between 2017, when Morales began his campaign against it, and its 2019 shutdown. But the campaign and attacks were also against the Constitutional Court, FECI, and PDH, and they continued after CICIG and media interest left. 6/?

One of the key ongoing political crises in #Guatemala is the constant battles between and within branches of government over the past three years. Coincidentally, I have to file an article on exactly this today, so this thread overlaps with that, ojo tweet plagiarist crew. 7/?

CICIG got the boot, but there have also been many attempts to oust and/or prosecute Constitutional Court magistrates, FECI lead special anti-impunity prosecutor Juan Francisco Sandoval, and PDH human rights ombudsman Jordán Rodas. So. Many. Attempts. Including today... 8/?

There is particular interest in tipping the scales in the Constitutional Court, the ultimate upholder of rule of law. Many people expected this next year when the five-year terms of the 10 magistrates (5 principals, 5 alternates) come up. But Covid-19 took two out this year. 9/?

Supreme Court justices and Appeals Court judges go through a nomination process before being elected by congress. Constitutional Court magistrates are appointed, one principal each, by the presidency, Supreme Court, congress, public university, and national bar association. 10/?

Today, in the middle of what is really a massive spike in a longstanding political crisis, congress plans to form a committee of inquiry into stripping two Constitutional Court justices of their immunity from prosecution for rulings, which is explicitly unconstitutional. 11/?

Forming the committee of inquiry re two Constitutional Court justices is the first main point on today's agenda. Opposition parties have announced a boycott and won't attend. Unofficially, some journalists report congress also plans to oust the human rights ombudsman today. 12/?

Also today, the Constitutional Court announced a key related measure is up for consideration today: an injunction the human rights ombudsman filed for against congress proceedings to strip Constitutional Court magistrates of immunity from prosecution. Welcome to #Guatemala. 13/?

Ok, so it isn't a brief thread. I'm a fan of context! If you are too, here is my latest thread on mass protests, including suggestions of local journalists to follow:

https://twitter.com/Sandra_Cuffe/status/1332765567271403520

Still want more? Here: sandracuffe.com/guatemala/ I'll post updates as they unfold. 14/?

#Guatemala's contentious congress session started with a reduced quorum of 75 (of 160) legislators. USAC agronomy students burning tires near another abandoned bus say singing the anthem Saturdays in the plaza is no longer enough, @PiaLaPeriodista reports:

https://twitter.com/PiaLaPeriodista/status/1333516847271071747

The Constitutional Court has issued a provisional injunction against congress' efforts to strip magistrates' immunity BUT:
1) rulings not in effect until formal notification
2) congress sometimes defies CC rulings
3) rumours congress to oust ombudsman

https://twitter.com/FcoPerez_EU/status/1333518962777337858

16/?

"There is a range of political, business and impunity-related interests behind congress' agenda," @JodyReporta writes, as congress moves forward despite a court injunction. [I assume official notification is still pending & that's the usual excuse.] 17/? lacuerda.gt/2020/11/30/las…

Following an injunction, #Guatemala's ruling alliance did not have the numbers in today's congress session, boycotted by opposition parties, to advance its efforts to strip two Constitutional Court magistrates of their immunity from prosecution. Things are back to the new normal:

I got sidetracked by a #ConociendoLaCC seminar, but among the many fascinating things Constitutional Court ex magistrate Carlos Luna Villacorta noted:

Today's CC amparo against congress was a 3-2 decision & the new presidency-appointed alternate magistrate voted in favour. 19/20

In sum, #Guatemala's break-it day was averted today, but remains a threat. What I wanted to add, though, is something that can be hard to keep in mind from afar: even when things are figuratively or literally ablaze, everyday life goes on, including xmas prep & a pandemic. 20/20