Thread by @nateliason

I was having this conversation with @rdeliason yesterday and it's an interesting thought experiment so I figured I'd share my thoughts on:

Given COVID, should you travel to see family for this Christmas?

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There are huge costs to just blindly following stay at home orders that aren't getting talked about enough:

https://twitter.com/nateliason/status/1330150839382663169?s=20

Just because we're being told to stay home doesn't necessarily mean we should.

There are a few angles we need to think about:

- Risk to you
- Risk to family (or who you're visiting)
- Risk to society

Let's start with Risk to You.

If you're at risk, just don't travel.

Everyone has to decide for themselves if they're "at risk."

To me it means anyone with any combination of:

- Over 70
- Existing lung conditions
- Overweight / Obese
- Diabetes
- Immunocompromised

Now, granted, if you're at risk and you wanna say "fuck it, I'll risk it" then go for it. That's your choice, and you should be allowed to make it.

But if you're not in those categories, I don't think the Risk to You is a big factor.

What about Risk to Family?

If you have a family member in the "at risk" category, then you have to consider their health and safety.

One option is to just not travel.

But, seeing family is important, so another option is to do aggressive testing before and after the transit.

Taking 2 test before you leave, then another 2 when you arrive, should give you fairly high confidence that you're being safe.

It could still slip through of course, but if the at-risk member wants to see people, this is a good way to mitigate risk.

Ultimately I think it should be up to the at-risk person to decide what everyone else does.

As children and grandchildren it's tempting to over-protect our elder relatives, but I suspect when I'm 90 I'd rather risk death to see my great-grandkids than sit alone in a condo.

Then there's the Risk to Society

By traveling, you're inevitably risking contributing to further spread of the virus, which has already had pretty awful impacts in some metro areas.

This is where the decision comes down most to a question of values.

My view is: if someone is in an at-risk population, and they're choosing to put themselves at risk by going to an airport, it is not my job to protect them by staying home.

If you're healthy and aren't putting anyone at risk, there's no reason you shouldn't live your life.

It's the job of those who are at risk, and their families, to be smart about exposure and protection.

That doesn't mean be stupid.

Wear a mask indoors in crowded areas.

Get tested.

Stay away from people if you have symptoms.

But don't surrender your whole life.

Holidays and family time are important, and if you're fortunate enough to be able to enjoy them together without endangering each other, you should.

Will there be more cases? Certainly. But case numbers don't matter all that much. What matter are deaths and hospital beds.

The argument against this is that by traveling, going to restaurants and such you're creating more social pressure to ignore quarantine guidelines.

That's true, but not necessarily bad. If you're not endangering yourself or your family, there's not much reason to isolate.

Treat other people like adults, expect them to be responsible, and live your life.

Epistemic certainty on all this is only like a 6/10 so I'm open to hearing where I'm wrong, as long as we can all discuss it politely.

(Also these are just my views, not Dad’s)