I'm firmly of the opinion that nobody owes any duty to investigate anyone else's claims. But I note that he doesn't address any of the anomalies I found most suspicious:
1. In Milwaukee, why did later votes swing more towards Democrats in races they were previously losing?
What on earth was going on in Montgomery County with the most suspicious looking update in the entire NYT dataset? As in, what's the specific theory here? Or is it just "unspecified errors"? revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
Why do the overnight updates in MI, WI and GA look so shockingly different to the rest of the data, including updates from other blue states, other large cities, other places with an urban/rural divide? votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anoma…
The Vote Pattern Analysis has been deemed sufficiently concerning and viral to warrant twitter telling us that everything is totes cool because experts at the AP and Reuters said so.
You skeptics have to disprove absolutely every possible alternative, and when you do, your reward is that Power just gets to tell you the Official Answer.
On the other hand, if @AGHamilton29 's point is that in-depth and rigorous statistical analyses are less likely to viral than bold claims that fraud has been finally nailed down by this One Weird Trick, for better or worse, I'm inclined to agree.
Every skeptic is caught in a bind. It is relatively easy to find clean evidence of small numbers of egregious errors. These get dismissed as being too small to matter.
It is harder, but still quite possible, to find statistical evidence suggesting large and widespread possible frauds that might have changed the overall race. These get dismissed as too speculative.
Which is fine, and totally up to you. But be honest - you've set up an enormously high hurdle, the "dump truck" standard. You will only be convinced, effectively, by video evidence of sacks of a hundred thousand fake ballots being dropped off in a dump truck.
As of now, there is no such evidence. I do not expect it to be forthcoming.
What you conclude from that depends on what priors you start with. But congratulating oneself for one's priors doesn't have quite the same intellectual appeal.
Also, if you want to look into other sources of important and credible claims, look at @MattBraynard and @FamedCelebrity.
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This came out in Revolver recently. It’s a new twist on identifying voter fr**d: Instead of starting with weird vote patterns, find *other data* that look weird (here, voter birthdays), and then relate it to votes.
(1/N)
It’s surprisingly hard to generate fake birthdays without leaving some trace in the data. The piece considers two broad ways that pull in opposite directions. First, you’ll probably pick too many round numbers – 1st, 15th & 31st of the month, Jan and Dec etc.
(2/N)
So, you think, I’ll be clever. I’ll use a uniform distribution over months of the year. Bzzt! Months have different numbers of days. Okay, hmm. I’ll choose uniformly over days of the year. Bzzt! Wrong again. It turns out that actual birth data aren’t uniform here either.
(3/N)
If you want the absolute best coverage of the state of election fr**d coverage, check out everything posted by @PereGrimmer, who's putting on a masterpiece of informed coverage of all the goings-on, including serious legal analysis.
I'm trying to divide my time between original research, summarizing and popularizing others' findings, and keeping abreast of new developments. But he's working full time on the last two, and is the absolute best game in town right now.
The saddest indictment of 2020 is that the only place to get up to the minute coverage of the lawsuits and analysis that affect the presidential election is from samizdat twitter threads by internet anons.
Vote Pattern Analysis Thread votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anoma…
This article does something very interesting – quantifying how weird the middle of the night updates in Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia were. I want to explain in simple terms what it does, and why it’s so important.
(1/N)
Tl; dr - the entire presidential election swings on the plausibility of these updates. And they look extremely unusual.
(2/N)
Recall, these are the places where election night saw complete banana republic stuff like boarding up windows in Wayne County vote counting centers to stop people who’d been excluded from the room even looking in. bizpacreview.com/2020/11/05/let…
(3/N)
Read that first, at least the summary, main facts, and discussion of alternative explanations.
First, I find the analysis very persuasive. The evidence that something very weird is going on in the data is almost irrefutable. The big question is whether these have innocent explanations, or malicious ones.
(2/N)
The case for malicious is, of course, circumstantial. But it seems a lot more coherent than the alternatives, and explains a lot of different facts with far fewer moving parts than specifying an arbitrary allowable form of “errors” across multiple datasets.
(3/N)
Want to identify possible election fraud, but don’t know where to start? Here’s a clean CSV format dataset from the NYT, identifying county-level presidential votes at periodic snapshots since counting began. There’s a lot to possibly analyze here. ufile.io/q3ysydfm
It can’t do the kinds of analysis I did, for which you need down-ballot races, and it would be nice to have ward or precinct-level data, but it makes up for it with fantastic repeated snapshots, and covering all of America.
The great thing about big data is that if there is something dubious going on, it has a tendency for some trace of it to show up somewhere. If you find something, spread the word!
Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in Milwaukee – a thread.
I’ve been looking at the vote counts in Milwaukee, and there’s suspicious patterns in the data that need explaining. Proving fraud is difficult, but a lot of irregularities point in that direction. First, the tl;dr.
(1/N)
1. Democrat votes started increasing massively relative to Republicans after Tuesday night counts. This can’t be accounted for by explanations like heavily Democratic wards reporting later. When we look at the changes *within wards*, 96.6% of them favored the Democrats.
(2/N)
2. Democrats also improved massively against third party candidates, but Republicans and third party candidates are similar to each other. Since there’s little incentive to manipulate third party counts, the big change is in Democrat votes, not in Republican ones.
(3/N)