Thread by @Brent_Thoma

Many believe we are overreacting, #COVIDsk is just the flu, only the elderly/those with comorbidities die, we can protect the vulnerable, if you survive it you are fine, your activities can continue safely, and it will not end up being as bad as we are making it out to be. 1/10

The SK Health Minister suggested this week that we could still follow their 'optimistic' modeling scenario and may be able to relax restrictions over Christmas. None of this is true. The optimistic scenario is clearly not happening. 2/10

The realistic models (which have not been clearly presented to the public) show that we are tracking a scenario that leads to cancelled surgeries and overwhelmed emergency departments, wards, and ICUs. A scenario that leads to a lot of unnecessary death. 3/10

We tried to warn the government. Many competent people within SHA are warning them while also preparing for the worst. The horrifying models I alluded to were developed to guide us. But for whatever reason, these warnings are falling upon deaf ears. 4/10

Some likely predictions:
-There won't be much of a Christmas in SK (5 in a house won't be able to be removed)
-Current public health measures will be extended for months (think March) and likely strengthened. 5/10

-Our healthcare system will see a crush of sick COVID patients (current ICU capacity will likely be filled by COVID patients before Christmas). This will mean cancelled surgeries/appointments, providers working outside their area, and overwhelmed providers. 6/10

-Many more of our friends, family members, colleagues, and neighbours will die before their time.
-The vaccine will not be ready in time to prevent any of this even if we are the first in the world to get it. 7/10

I can't find the words to express how it feels to know this but not be able to prevent it. To know that our govt leaders could prevent it, but have chosen not to. I worry my family member will have a medical crisis and our system will not be able to give them the best care. 8/10

This is where we are headed and we seem to be unable or unwilling to stop it. I know those who read/share this are already doing everything they can. Please keep it up - even if it won't be enough it will be something. 9/10

Those that need to hear it the most - our province's leaders - have already been told that this is coming and either don't believe or don't care. I don't know how to change their minds. 10/10

The town hall outlining the #COVIDsk modeling that I alluded to has been posted on a public website. Check out the models for yourself from 11:22 to 17:55. There is also a Q&A that begins at 47:50 vimeo.com/485981766/1db4…