1/5

An expansion of debt really isn't "a crisis of the next generation", as one German politicians insists. Too much debt can certainly be a problem for the economy if it sets off financial distress costs, or results in harmful distributions of...

ft.com/content/8d0bdc…
2/5

income, but for an economy that borrows in its own currency, borrowing today does not involve spending resources from the future. It just transfers resources from one group to another within the current generation, and implies another transfer within a future generation.
3/5

What matters is whether or not the transfer today leaves the economy better off. If borrowing crowds out more productive spending and replaces it with less productive spending, the economy is worse off, but "crowding out" hasn't been a problem for decades.
4/5

If however the proceeds of the borrowing are used to expand the economy's productive capacity (or, in this case, to prevent their contraction), both the current generation of Germans and future generations can be better off. What is more, while the debt may be...
5/5

higher, the debt burden will be lower because GDP will grow faster than debt.

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More from @michaelxpettis

1 Dec
1/6

Guo Shuqing is right to worry about real estate: since at least the Roman financial crisis of 33 AD (and probably earlier), nearly every major financial crisis in history was ultimately driven by a collapse in real estate.

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/6

But while I still think China is more likely to have a long deflation than a collapse, he is probably a little late in suggesting that “steps must be taken to avoid bubbles in the real estate sector,” although he could hardly have said otherwise. Unfortunately for...
3/6

China, because the creation of a real estate bubble has been one of the main drivers of growth, deflating the former also means giving up the latter. We’ve seen this movie often enough to know the plot.

What is most interesting about this article, to me, is that it...
Read 6 tweets
1 Dec
1/4

I am not an expert on the Australian economy, but I disagree with this article, which argues that the cost to Australia of a shutdown in China-Australia trade is much greater than other economists suggest because “the loss of Chinese...

theconversation.com/an-all-out-tra…
2/4

exports reduces the rate of return on investment in Australia, forcing financial markets to reallocate finance to other parts of the world.” This seems an argument that last made sense in the 19th and early 20th centuries, when the cost of capital was high and...
3/4

Australian investment was constrained by the scarcity of savings. But for many years, Australia, like every other advanced economy and some developing ones, has been flooded with cheap capital, and is likely to be well into the future. Economists seem unable to shake...
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov
1/8

Good article. According to Wang Min, the head of one of China’s large SOEs who is interviewed here, “The fall of state firms isn’t just a result of bad management, unclear strategy and inadequate entrepreneurship. It also has to do with government...

ft.com/content/157310…
2/8

mismanagement that puts [unreasonable] performance targets on these companies.”

This is a very important point with even more important – though not always understood – implications. As long as local governments, pressured by Beijing, try to generate levels of economic...
3/8

activity that exceed growth in the underlying economy, there simply is no way to prevent businesses from making bad investment decisions and lenders from making bad lending decisions. That is the only way to bridge the gap between what the economy can productively deliver...
Read 8 tweets
30 Nov
1/9

This very interesting article says “the message is clear among top policymakers: China must increase its middle class to avoid the middle income trap, where a developing country’s growth stagnates because of structural obstacles that impede...

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/9

development". The plan is to double the size of the middle class (defined as households that earn $15,000-$75,000 a year) by 2035. The article then cites a senior think-tanker who makes the reasonable-sounding argument that “If China’s average annual GDP growth rate in...
3/9

the next 15 years can reach five per cent, and residents’ incomes can grow at roughly the same rate, China’s middle-income group will double.”

But this strikes me as the very circular thinking we almost always see in the late stages of investment-led growth...
Read 9 tweets
29 Nov
1/9

China is aging so rapidly that it urgently needs to address the problem of a rapidly declining work force in a slowly declining population. To give an idea of relative population changes among the three most populous countries, today there...

scmp.com/economy/articl…
2/9

are 4.3 Chinese for every American and 4.7 Chinese of working age (ages 15-64), while there is just over 1 Chinese for every Indian and 1.1 Chinese of working age.

By the end of the century, however, there are expected to be 2.5 Chinese for every American and...
3/9

just 2.4 Chinese of working age, while there will be 1.4 Indians for every Chinese and 1.5 Indians of working age. Over the rest of this century, in other words, while China’s population declines quite rapidly relative to that of the two other most populous countries, it...
Read 9 tweets
27 Nov
1/4

No, because the Eurodollar market is not an ethereal entity into which transactions disappear. It consists of real entities with real balance sheets that match. If the Japanese entity used the export revenues to purchase Eurodollar bonds issued by Repsol, for example, and...
2/4

Repsol used the funds to expand its operations in Libya, then Libyan investment would rise and Japan’s surplus would be balanced by a Libyan deficit – either with France or with some other country – against which foreign claims on Libyan assets will have increased.
3/4

If Japan on the other hand left its revenues in the form of deposits in a French bank – and it doesn’t matter whether these deposits are eurodollar deposits or in any other currency – the French bank would manage its balance sheet either by expanding assets or contracting...
Read 4 tweets

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