Thread by @BauerJournalism

Dr. Allison Arwady will have a coronavirus update for Chicago at 1 p.m. I'll live tweet.

Follow for updates and let me know if you have questions.

blockclubchicago.org/2020/12/01/cor…

You can watch here: pscp.tv/w/1djxXqjPjpRKZ

Arwady: "As you can see, most of the country at this point is either red or orange," meaning you shouldn't travel there. Only three states are under 15 daily cases per 100,000 people.

Arwady: We have almost 160,000 diagnosed cases of COVID. Our active cases are at almost 20,000. That means someone who has been diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 14 days or hospitalized in past 30 days. That's about 13% of total cases.

Arwady: We've had 136,000 people recover and almost 3,500 deaths.

Arwady: We estimate there's 99,000-140,000 Chicagoans with active, infectious COVID-19 right now. That means as many as 1 in 19 Chicagoans have it now — a slight improvement.

"But still, the risk for COVID here is high and gathering remains, unfortunately, a high-risk activity."

Arwady: There's been "definitely some improvement" in new cases.

This doesn't take into account a post-Thanksgiving surge. "It's still too early so what that may look like, either locally or nationally, but obviously we're watching closely to see what impact that may have."

Arwady: There are ZIP codes where nearly 1 in 4 Chicagoans has COVID.

Arwady on hospitalizations: "This is a lot of people to have in the hospital with COVID. Our hospitals are under a lot of strain; the goal is ... hope to start to see some coming down in those numbers."

Arwady: We're a little worried about around us, too, particularly" in the south suburbs. "Sometimes Chicago's hopsitals end up accepting a lot of" patients from the burbs.

Arwady: "Deaths have not peaked yet." They're up 5 times what they were in October. We're averaging 15-16 deaths per day. "And, as expected, those lag even further behind cases. So we expect those, unfortunately, likely to keep rising for at least a couple of weeks."

Arwady: Deaths could also go up with a possible post-Thanksgiving surge.

Arwady: In the past month, we had one person die of COVID between ages 18-29.
Nine people in their 30s died.
Fifteen in their 40s died.
Thirty-six in their 50s died.
Eighty-seven in their 60s died.
Ninety-five in their 70s died, and 113 in their 80s.

Arwady: If you gathered for Thanksgiving and have been letting your guard down, don't travel. Take precautions seriously.

Arwady: They expect Pfizer and Moderna will be granted emergency use authorization. They've shown "excellent safety data and excellent efficacy data."

Arwady: I think it is likely we will be vaccinating here in Chicago in the third to fourth week of December.

"Two weeks from today, we could be talking about vaccination. Lot of details to come, but we are ready ... ."

(Those will go to health care workers.)

Dr. Robinson from CDPH: Certain groups will be prioritized to get the first doses due to limited supply. That includes health care personnel.

They anticipate there won't be enough vaccine to vaccinate all health care personnel at once. Those who are seeing COVID-19 patients, ...

as well as those performing patients that put them at highest risk, will be put first.

Robinson: Vaccination efforts will continue to expand as the city receives more vaccine.

It could expand to long-term care facilities, to people with underlying conditions, to people 65+ and essential workers.

Arwady: The 20,000-25,000 is the number of first doses they expect to give. There's already a reserve so those people can get a second dose.

"We don't know for sure how much we'll get, but that is the estimation" the company has said they think they'll be able to provide.

Arwady: Our expectation is that first week might have 20,000-25,000, but they hope to receive additional vaccine from the same company and other vaccines from other companies each week after.

Arwady: "The first prioritization is very much based around health care workers." They know they won't have enough vaccine at first to get all the health care workers in hospitals.

Arwady: Who gets vaccine after that will depend on guidelines from the feds. "But we anticipate, for example, essential workers being part of that next tranche of who this is made available to."

Arwady: They're anticipating possible hesitancy for vaccine in Black and Latino communities.

Arwady: "That Pfizer vaccine, in particular, is the ultra-cold vaccine ... even the Moderna vaccine, it's not the ultra-cold, but it is much colder than vaccines typically need to be." Some hospitals do have ultra-cold capacity. Where they have it, they can receive that shipment.

Arwady: "We've built up, at CDPH, the capacity to handle more than 130,000 doses at a time, even of the ultra-cold, and have plans to be distributing to the many hospitals that don't have that ultra-cold capacity."

Arwady: "We don't know yet" if the vaccine will only be needed once or if it'll be annual (or something else). The Pfizer/Moderna vaccines do require two doses.

Arwady: "I think a lot of vaccine experts are feeling optimistic that this won't be an annual vaccine," partly because COVID-19 hasn't mutated a lot.

Arwady: "It's looking promising that it would have some longevity, but it's too soon" to know for sure.

Arwady: "There's been a lot of work to make sure that as people are being vaccinated, their information is being stored privately but also in a way that will keep track of who has been vaccinated with which vaccine, have they gotten both doses. The CDC is setting up a ...

"post-vaccine monitoring system where people who are vaccinated will have the ability to be able" to report possible side effects, report any concerns, etc. "Certainly, down the line, we may see some employers, businesses requiring vaccine. We are not anticipating, at this ...

"point, sort of a city requirement around vaccine or a national requirement around vaccine."

Arwady: She plans to get vaccinated very early.

Arwady: "All of the prioritizations at the high level are set federally and then they are implemented locally."

Chicago gets its vaccine supply from the feds separately from Illinois.

Arwady: "We are anticipating that the way this will be prioritized will not be by neighborhood, per se; it will be by risk." Emphasizes likely timeline is: health care workers->essential workers->people with underlying conditions/65+

Arwady: When there is more vaccine available, they'll be looking to clinical partners — private practices, FQHCs, pharmacies, etc., and encouraging people to get vaccinated through their health care provider.

Arwady: "We want to make vaccine widely available, certainly throughout Chicago."

Arwady: We're at about 25% availability for ICU bed availability. "We're pretty full. We want to see that number stay over 20%, certainly ... . You can imagine, we've got some hospitals that are very full and some that have a little more capability."

Arwady: "... We haven't even seen flu season hit yet. We are appropriately concerned about how this second COVID surge has already been hitting our hospitals, and it has the potential to sort of hit them even further."

Arwady: "We have built, actually, a very unusual amount of cold storage" capability. They don't say where it was for security measures. "I am really confident in the plans that we have related to distribution."

Arwady: "Significant level of immunity can mean very different things for different people. ... We worry about people who didn't get seriously ill" and might not have had a significant immune response.

...

CDC thinks there's "some" level of protection in 3 months after recovery, but there are major questions about that and there have been hundreds of confirmed reinfections. "We really need everybody continuing to do the things we know work. ...

"We don't consider natural infection to be protective in a way that we recommend against doing those things."

Even after you're vaccinated, you'll have to wear masks, social distance, etc.

Arwady: "I'm very hopeful that by the time we're halfway or in the third quarter of this year, we'll be in a different place." But that depends on things largely out of the CDPH's control.

Arwady: "I almost feel like it is foolish to make predictions at this point because there are so many unknowns and we are just at the beginning of getting started. Certainly, I am anticipating this campaign to really last for a year, give or take." First 6 months will probably...

see CDPH playing a big role in vaccination campaign. They hope that after, there will be wide availability of vaccine in many settings.

Arwady: "We're at the beginning of what's going to be a long campaign here ... ." But they'll try to be transparent.

Arwady on 300-person party: "I'm really disappointed when I see this. ... But, yknow, certainly I'm disappointed with the people hosting that party, but I'm also disappointed with the 300 people who thought it was a good idea to go to that party."

blockclubchicago.org/2020/11/30/a-3…

Arwady: If 1 in 19 Chicagoans has COVID and there were 300 people there, statistically, a lot of people had COVID there. And they weren't wearing masks. "When we're working as hard as we are as a city and so many people have made so many sacrifices in their own personal ...

"lives, our only goal is to get Chicago through this as quickly as we can. [Parties and things like that] is what sets us back. It just means that people who are doing the right thing have to do the right thing even longer ... ."

Press conference over.

blockclubchicago.org/2020/12/01/cor…