Thread by @ChadPergram

1) Here's a breakdown of what's unfolding behind the scenes with coronavirus relief efforts. A coalition of bipartisan senators and some House members have cobbled together a $908 billion proposal

2) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) have engineered a “private” coronavirus plan they shared with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) – but are not sharing the details.

3) McConnell has been working with the Trump Administration to craft a plan which can earn President Trump’s signature. That proposal, is believed to cost $332 billion – but has not been scored by the Congressional Budget Office. It's price is offset.

4) Keep in mind that McConnell has pushed a “targeted” $500 billion proposal since late summer.

5) McConnell also intimated today that if there is a deal on a coronavirus stimulus, leaders could Velcro it to package the sides are now drafting to avoid a government shutdown at the end of next week.

“I think it’ll likely come in one package,” said McConnell.

6) But it’s unclear how plausible that scenario may be.

So, what is really going on?

7) This is like in high school where there was the activity bus. You were in choir, or theatre or science club. Maybe you played football or soccer. And there was always the first run of the activity bus to take everyone home.

8) If you missed it, you could always catch the second bus. But if you missed that one, your final shot was the late run of the bus. Otherwise, you would be left at school.

9) With a coronavirus bill, lawmakers from both sides of the aisle are trying to catch the last run of the activity bus before the 116th Congress ends, the Trump Administration expires and it’s Christmas.

10) The sides tried to forge an agreement over the summer before the COVID-19 surge. They missed that deadline.

Then there was an effort to put together something before the election. That came and went as well.

11) Now, they’re down to the last shot. It’s either get a coronavirus deal this month or they’ll be left at school.

So here's a breakdown of the proposals:

12) Some Senate Republicans are already lambasting the bipartisan Senate plan because it includes money for state and local governments. It’s unclear if that measure could get 51 votes – let alone 60 votes to cut off a filibuster.

13) So far, Pelosi has refused to budge from her proposal of anywhere from $2.2 trillion to more than $3 trillion. Plus, Pelosi probably couldn’t get liberal Democrats to sign off on such an inexpensive plan.

14) And don’t forget that some House Republicans would balk, too. So it’s doubtful this proposal can garner the right cocktail of votes to pass.

15) The McConnell proposal could earn some credibility among Republicans because it is inexpensive – if President Trump is truly on board. The last thing we heard from the President on COVID relief is that he wanted to “do it even bigger than the Democrats.

16) McConnell says he drafted a plan, in consultation with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, which could earn a presidential signature.

17) That means President Trump is all over the map again on what sort of coronavirus bill he would sign, conceivably relenting to the smallest possible package yet. But no one truly knows where Mr. Trump stands on this.

18) Regardless, the McConnell proposal is way cheaper than the $1.9 trillion proposal Mnuchin proposed to Senate GOPers in the fall. You may recall that Senate Republicans handed Mnuchin his head over that proposal during a weekend conference call in October.

19) Finally, there is the Pelosi/Schumer “mystery” plan. One GOP source decried the proposal as “full of poison pills” left over from the $3 trillion coronavirus package the House approved in May.

20) The Pelosi/Schumer proposal could just be a fig leaf. Such a proposal could be an effort by Democratic leaders to give it one last try – simultaneously reasserting their policy requests – knowing Republicans would shoot it down.

21) And if that’s the case, Pelosi and Schumer can return to their caucuses and say “we tried.”

The one wild card in all of this: the possible imminent releases of coronavirus vaccines.

22) Rapid distribution of a coronavirus vaccine could require significant federal wherewithal, personnel, logistics and infrastructure. Could a need for money to help distribute the vaccines pry all of this loose? It’s possible.

23) That is the newest variable in the mix. Otherwise, the policy positions haven’t changed at all since summertime. And lawmakers could very well latch money designated to coronavirus distribution to the big government spending bill rolling down the pike.

24) Otherwise, the sides continue to just talk past one another.

It would be irresponsible for lawmakers to leave Washington without one final try at a coronavirus stimulus package. So, they're giving it a final go before Christmas.