Coming up on @realmoney (I think this is a good one!)
Investors Are (Inappropriately) Unconcerned That We Are At an Enormous "Distance" Financially to the Next Equilibrium Point in Interest Rates

* It is underappreciated and investors lack concern what may happen when the
currently bizarre rate instability is finally disrupted - as it must be someday
* The mountain of global debt will - more sooner than later - weigh on the capital markets
* We look for clues... that the consensus of rates lower for longer will begin to have the foul odor of
"Group Stink"
* Inflationary expectations and bond yields are quietly ticking up
* I remain short bonds (large sized)
* A further and inevitable drop in prices and rise in yields will likely begin to impact market multiples and rate sensitive areas

• • •

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More from @DougKass

3 Dec
@realmoney
Dec 03, 2020 | 03:56 PM EST DOUG KASS
Pfizer News Jabs at Market
The market appears to be trading off on news that Pfizer (PFE) expects to ship half of the Covid-19 vaccines it originally planned for this year, because of supply-chain problems. But the pharma company
still expects to roll out more than a billion doses next year.

@pboockvar just mentioned to me that "the S&P Index is trading 16% above its 200-day moving average -- at the same percentage as on Sept. 2."

We are now at the polar opposite of where we were in March.
The fear of eight months ago has been replaced by extreme greed and the absence of doubt.

It is truly amazing that in an investment setting dominated by passive products and strategies that chase momentum (knowing everything about price but nothing about value) --
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec
@realmoney
Dec 01, 2020 | 09:20 AM EST DOUG KASS
Risk Now Dwarfs Reward
* The S&P is about 20% overvalued
* I am medium-sized (about -25%) net short
* And I have a lot of room to get shorter on further strength

I have been net long for the majority of 2020.

No longer.
I have steadily reduced large holdings in a number of equities to small-sized after the stocks experienced large price share gains and have unattractive upside/downside ratios (e.g., ($DIS) , ($GM) , ($WMT) , ($MS) , ($GS) , ($PZZA) , ($VTV) , ($VBR) , etc.).
And I have totally eliminated some others (e.g., ($TWTR) , ($PNC) ).

The notion of "margin of safety" and reward vs. risk is, too often, missed by the investment community that is now, more than ever, inhabited by those individuals, products and strategies that worship at
Read 5 tweets
27 Nov
Who shorts $TSLA this week, Bobby?
A contrarian and value investor that doesn't focus on price or momentum (a valid and often profitable method of trading) but focuses on "margin of safety" and intrinsic value.
One who bought $XLF at $21 $GM at $29, $DIS at $93, $GS at $185
recently when they looked terrible technically and sold most of them in the last few days (x- $XLF) considerably higher.
So the answer to your questions: When viewed in the prism of security analysis, a value investor who runs longs and shorts, may consider shorting $TSLA owing
to an assessment that the current price materially exceeds the company's "fair market value."
Rather than ridiculing other investing approaches as foolish or anathema, you might at times consider that other methods away from yours can be quite profitable. As I do yours @dougkass
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
@realmoney
My skin is hardened after all these decades.
At this point little impacts me from the standpoint of ad hominem attacks and/or non rigorous criticism.
The haters on social media platforms like Twitter are pathetic and while I actually feel badly for their plight - I
aggressively and routinely block and report them (leaving them and their words in the purgatory of their isolation).
Its easy to reside in the cheap seats of anonymity - especially by the many that have never been on he playing field.
But, frankly, it is amazing how much grief I
have taken on the banks in 2020 from Tweeps and others.
Not surprisingly, not one of the self confident bears who literally (incessantly) ridiculed me for buying the banks/financials (I have copies of their tweets) have said a word on Twitter or elsewhere in recognition that
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
@realmoney
Nov 24, 2020 | 10:50 AM EST DOUG KASS
Tesla Is Not Only an Overpriced Stock but the Company's Fundamentals Are Deteriorating
* More on my Tesla short...

The positive impact of an S&P inclusion is blurring the reality of multiple negative fundamentals that are
emerging at Tesla (TSLA) - that investors are ignoring:

* Tesla has been blessed by little need to advertise. But with competition heating up, and without a model refresh, margins will be adversely impacted by the need to raise advertising expenses considerably. This article
explains how sizeable General Motors' (GM) advertising budget is today. I would not be surprised that a year from now, Tesla will be spending 2%-3% on advertising - something none of the EPS models have built in.

* Meanwhile Tesla product prices are being cut around the world.
Read 5 tweets
24 Nov
@realmoney
I go by my script of fundamental analysis, logic of argument and common sense. But sometimes the script doesnt fall in place - we adapt as flexibility key to managing $s:
Nov 24, 2020 | 07:52 AM EST DOUG KASS
When the Circumstances Change, I Change My Mind...
What Do You Do, Sir?

* I declared an audible and covered all my Index shorts after the close on Monday evening

* I have often written about being flexible and opportunistic - I view last night's move as fulfilling my task of being flexible, and admitting that my short term
crystal ball may have been wrong

* I am back to medium-sized in net long exposure

* Look for banks and other value to lead the market over the balance of the year

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
- John Maynard Keynes @jimcramer @tomkeene
Read 4 tweets

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