For biopharma co's advanced enough that you have built a revenue forecast, I'd like to make a case for 1) incorporating conservatism and / or 2) showing a few scenarios (downside, base, upside). Many co's put forth a very aggressive forecast b/c they assume (rightly)...1/7
...that investors will discount their projections somewhat. However, if the forecast far exceeds comps that ppl may reference, assumes a very optimistic penetration rate, or fails to account for things such as physician uptake, insurance coverage rate, or adherence, you run...2/7
...the risk of losing credibility. Inv's may simply disengage at that point. If instead you incorporate realistic assumptions, explain these assumptions, & provide a model that allows key inputs to be tweaked, you'll likely get more engagement. E.g., if you have to say...3/7
..."even if you take *10%* of our revenue projection, it's a meaningful drug!" then you've lost ppl. That just sounds like you're making things up and throwing out crazy numbers. Also, if you have a currently marketed comp, expect some ppl to want to anchor to that. You can...4/7
...provide a "Downside" forecast that anchors to (but can still be more optimistic than) your commercial comp's ramp. If the commercial comp is really miniscule, this isn't a good approach (you then have to explain why you'll be addressing a MUCH bigger portion of the pop,...5/7
...or be able to justify much higher pricing, etc.) But if the marketed comp could support a reasonable valuation for your co., then it's worth providing a scenario based on that. This might be a base case for some, or a downside case for others. But at least you get inv's...6/7
...to recognize that even in a minimal scenario, you can generate significant sales. What you don't want to do is show only a forecast that will be seen as crazy (not credible) or neglect the fact that inv's don't want to take unbounded downside risk (so bound the downside). 7/7
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Appreciate this article summarizing points I made re: #diversity in biotech & VC from a panel at the BioPharm America Digital Conference. Key ideas: 1) use recruiters & not just word of mouth to access a more diverse group of candidates; 2) anonymize case studies & if...1/7
...possible, even candidate names on the initial resume review (studies show the same resume with a minority name on it will produce fewer interview offers than a white-sounding name, & that ppl tend to judge the same piece of work more harshly if they believe it was...2/7
...written by a minority or a woman than if they believe it was written by a white male); 3) expand network to meet ppl earlier in their careers & shift searches to ppl a bit younger when possible - in an industry in which diverse professionals are underrepresented at the...3/7
When I saw this headline, I feared the article would be reductionist and coy. But the authors hit on many of the right points: 1) individuals’ political beliefs don’t solely (or even mostly) relate to potential impact on the industry in which they... 1/7 statnews.com/2020/10/30/is-…
...work; 2) Trump’s deep-seated antipathy to science is an affront to drug developers; 3) Trump’s politicization of the drug dev’t process & undermining of the FDA & CMC threaten our industry; 4) Trump may not raise the corp tax rate or seek campaign finance reform, but...2/7
...his approach to the drug industry has been hostile, unpredictable, & uninformed by dialogue. The article doesn’t note Trump’s desire to dismantle ObamaCare, which would have a negative impact on many ppl’s health as well as the biopharma industry. It also doesn’t mention...3/7
Thread for folks looking for roles in biopharma VC. Nearly every week I speak to someone who wants to get into biopharma VC. One high-level theme: even for entry roles, you *generally* need to check the box “understands science” as well as the box “can do basic financial... 1/9
...modeling”. Often ppl who reach out to me have substantial scientific creds but don’t have any finance experience. That’s not a deal killer for every firm or role – with a very strong scientific background and some other form of business training (non-finance business...2/9
...roles, MBA or relevant undergrad major, even being self-taught) many people can do just fine in biopharma VC (I wouldn’t try to do healthcare services VC/PE, though, unless you’re a whiz at financial modeling). Others may enter the industry from an entrepreneurial /... 3/9
Thread: advice for preclinical biotechs on their in vivo datasets. For preclinical biotechs seeking funding, the difference between a vaguely interesting data set & a fundable data set often comes down to 1) controls used (especially positive controls); 2) dose range tested. 1/7
...We see so many companies fail to utilize obvious positive controls (which is to say, ones that provide some way to contextualize the data with the co’s molecule vs. other experiments done in the field). Why is this? Maybe to save money or time? Or perhaps because it’s...2/7
...viewed as sufficient to show some signal, and risky to have a comparator? Producing data at only a single dose (especially a really high one) is also in many ways a waste of the experiment. It’s critical to design your experiments with these things in mind, even if... 3/7