If monkeys pick bottoms how do you pass your day? Me? i speak with great minds like Raoul Pal. He's kindly allowed me to share our latest RealVision conversation on my youtube channel.
We discuss the imperative of the USA to free itself from the serfdom imposed by its mercantilist trading partners.
Executive summary: encourage the free market to push nominal Treasury yields negative. Go pick a fight. What's the worst that could happen? That the $ falls... Would that be so bad? Watch me lather my head space in CBD oil in contemplation of alll the crazy bleating hearts. Enjoy
Just remember - CBD oil trumps Hegemonic petrol dollar currency theories
Talk about a bad trade - going up against the Mother Teresa of macro fin twit on @RealVision I'm talking about @LynAldenContact Maybe its the London weather, I miss St Barts already, but what a bunch of whiners over on the comments page at RV. Get real guys, this is macro!
Let me explain the set-up. We wanted to offer a glimpse of how the real world operates. Hedge fund managers responsible for billions of $s are typically alpha types, time pressed and egocentric. Presenting your best idea to that bunch is a tortuous task - a swim or drown affair.
Lyn is a disciplined investment analyst. She's cultivated a cautious and scholarly reputation. Good on her! Her challenge was to present to me as though I was one of those big swinging managers. I played it for real. I played it hard. I don't crave your love; I'm a sociopath...
1 Let's lance this boil re @LukeGromen claim that global CBs stopped sterilising reckless US deficits 6 years ago.
2 Until then we had to suffer the China, like Japan decades before, and Russia before that in the 1970s, had solved the Rubik's cube and was going to rule the world.
3 Bankers, the eurodollar invisible but hyper-active type. They really bought this BS hook line and sinker. They couldn't lend fast enough to all things China. Which is to say there was a massive credit expansion. That money was printed out of thin air.
Hey @RealVision crew! Cycles turn. Rewind to 1981, Fed rates hit 20pc in March. Inflation was 10.9pc. Everyone knew policy was incredibly tight. Inflation was falling. What happened? Bonds got slaughtered. US T yields finally peaked, prices bottomed, round year end at 15.8pc.
Everyone knew this was nuts. But like monkeys, too many bottoms had been picked...and the psychology was forboding. That’s what great turning points do to you. You find yourself at war with your own imagination.
I try and answer your questions relating to my recent twitter outburst regarding the role of negative interest rates. I explain how the external trading value of the dollar is trapped.
How the US has lost its exorbitant privilege..yes, it can still print money, should its private sector banks be willing to do so. However it can no longer lower the external value of the dollar vis-a-vis its trading partners. The mercantilists have gained the upper-hand.
I try and explain how negative US dollar rates might represent a valid and rational attempt to abolish the US from such serfdom buzzsprout.com/1017043/6415015
1. Curiosity is different for every person. For some its hate, or joy or fear or jealousy or torture. For me it's peace, it's everything. It's rock, it's roll, it's Nat King Cole...
2. But then I'm probably a sociopath. To some i'm charismatic to others i'm aggressive. I don't make long term plans and i rarely feel empathy.
3. But sometimes i can feel the future. I hope you enjoyed my super long thread on why the US is being held hostage by other sovereign nations. Unable to devalue the dollar and correct for decades of deficits. An exorbitant privilege ? Give me a break...
If i could only get higher, I’m sure that I could see @RaoulGMI . He’s got to be out there, somewhere...
Oh boy you @RealVision guys are gonna be gunning for me when that interview comes out. But watch out cause I’m gonna read all your comments. Hey! I even wore a shirt! Pity. about the buttons...but Tinseltown is in the Rain