it’s great that economists do lots of field work and interviews now. But think of the absolute sloppiest, terrible causal inference paper you can remember, from someone who doesn’t even know that they don’t know what they’re doing.

That’s how economists do qualitative research.
We can probably do better. We shouldn’t expect most papers to do better than that. But surely some papers should?

What percent? Even 1% using qualitative work to motivate a theory or understand the results of a program evaluation would be more than happens
Often these are econ-ethnographer partnerships. Some good collaborations I can think of:

Morduch and Rutherford and coauthors on financial diaries

Levitt and Venkatesh on Chicago gangs

Anything with Ensminger
It’s not obvious in the papers, but most of my work in Liberia & Uganda had systematic qual work, and usually one of the coauthors was well trained as a qual researcher, even if it wasn’t their specialty. I don’t think we’d have had many of the best ideas or measures without that
So maybe more systematic and careful qual interviews are more common than I think, and economists just don’t “show their work” in a paper with page limits.
In a few weeks my Colombia coauthors and I will release a paper on organized crime that combines 4y of systematic qual work with theory, experiments, and quasi-experiments, and I’m going to try to sell ECMA on the technical contribution. I will let you know how THAT goes.
A note for people who want to learn and do better:

I’m convinced that the only way to learn this skill is to work with someone who knows how to do it well, as a coauthor or as a mentor.

This is why I recommend recruiting a coauthor.
This by Sanchez de la Sierra and Titeca is destined to be one of the great modern examples, a study of corrupt police hierarchies in Kinshasa. One of the most impressive papers I have seen in my life:

conference.nber.org/conf_papers/f1…
I learned by accident. My first fieldwork job working for a famous development economist, shortly before my PhD, he had a girlfriend at the time who was an anthropologist and she took an interest in the project. She let me tag along with her.
Little things mattered, like trying to enter village the normal way, on a bus with other people, not pulling up in a hired SUV. How we should go hang out in the tea shop and chit chatting for ages, observing, before choosing whom we wanted to ask for a longer conversation.
I also learned that a shocking number of good qual researchers are really sloppy about their notes and analysis, they use too-small samples, and they don’t do some of the basic things that stop the work from promoting salient and provocative but unrepresentative views.
So we can all do better! Doing a little of this work is really pleasurable.

And since time for everyone is scarce, hiring RAs to do it for you, in large samples, and reading the interviews yourself later, has been *hugely* useful for me to better understand program evaluations

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More from @cblatts

1 Oct
OK who wants a thread on why gangs rule? Not why gangs are great. I mean, when and how do they govern civilians.

Here we are meeting one gang leader who, besides running the drug trade, has built this crafts school behind him, a recycling center, and a community pool.
This isn't a slum. It's a middle income neighborhood in Medellin, Colombia. Nearly every low- and middle income neighborhood in the city has a resident gang called a combo.

We spent 4 years interviewing dozens of members and leaders of 31 criminal groups.
Here's a map of the city. We also surveyed 7000 people on what services state and combos provide. Medium & dark red indicate a combo intervenes in disputes, crime, and disorder more than the state.

(By we I mean @SantiagoTobon @BigBigBLessing & @gusduncan with @poverty_action)
Read 17 tweets
24 Sep
As the school year kicks off & grad students start signing up to see profs, here are some thoughts about planning your research.

To me, the 2 questions PhD students ought to ask themselves:

1. How will this research change people's beliefs?
2. Who are those people?
These are probably the two questions I ask students again and again, and it leads to better research.

This is certainly true with empirical research. Students are consumed with credible causality. So they get really excited when they think about a way to identify something.
But often, others already buy their hypothesis. So the study is unlikely to change beliefs. Sure we might learn something from checking. But a study, or at least a dissertation, needs to have a big ex-ante capacity to surprise us or change our minds about something important.
Read 10 tweets
14 Sep
I think @tage_rai has made good points here about money and bias in the open science movement, and got a lot of hostile pile on this weekend. But in fairness I think it's also important to not lose some of the more principled concerns I saw some people raise.
A great thing about a powerful editor speaking freely on Twitter is that it creates some transparency. And many (like me) are happy to see some changes: openness to accepting papers that have already circulated/gotten media coverage, and plain speaking on bias in the profession.
On the open science question, looming in the background (for me) is that for a long time (before @tage_rai, before Gilbert) top journals (Science included) have had a reputation for sensation-seeking.
Read 9 tweets
12 Sep
Everyone should read this social science replication commentary. Extremely interesting. Note that it doesn’t actually replicate anything (yet). It just predicts what papers are suspect based on some basic indicators of quality. Still, there is much to learn from + say about this.
A few thoughts. Economics comes out looking relatively good, but I enjoyed this observation: “A unique weakness of economics is the frequent use of absurd instrumental variables.”

I like an IV once in a while but I agree 90% are junk and we should probably stop.
On the huge number of self evidently crap studies, I recall how Lant Pritchett once said that research is like ballet. Every moment there are millions of kids doing terrible ballet all over the world. But all that is necessary to product the best people & performances.
Read 6 tweets
10 Sep
I need a pop culture reference. The idea I want to capture is that the world isn't deterministic. Take an event like WWI. If we could rerun history as a simulation 1000 times, identical up to 1913, how many times would war break out in 1914? Is there a famous book or movie?
To continue the WWI example to show what I mean: How many times does Gaviria Principe miss the Archduke and WWI happens anyways? How many times does the assassination happen and WWI is avoided? How much is in the error term?
This is correct. The multiverse angle is key. Back to the Future and similar don't work as well. They point to certain actions being junctions in history's path. But don't capture the extent to which there may be systematic forces that keep events on track
Read 4 tweets
27 Aug
Someone at @UChicago please admit @graciegcunning to the Univeristy solely on the basis of these “what is real?” videos
Read 4 tweets

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