THREAD) Climate scientists often don’t get as much recognition as they deserve.

For this #FollowFriday, I’ve prepared a list of 13 professional climate scientists, with at least 20,000 followers each, but which @Twitter has not yet @Verified.

Maybe change that @TwitterSupport?
First up, Professor Stefan Rahmstrof (@rahmstorf) is Head of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

He is a leading climate scientist, 2017 winner of the @theAGU's Climate Communication Prize, and an expert on the oceans. 2/
Dr. Kate Marvel (@DrKateMarvel) of Columbia University & NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Science.

She develops and evaluates climate models, while also frequently writing & speaking about climate change. One of @TIME’s "15 Women Leading the Fight Against Climate Change". 3/
Professor Kevin Anderson (@KevinClimate) of the University of Manchester & former Director of the UK’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.

His work focuses on crafting policy scenarios for how governments can transition away from carbon and towards clean energy. 4/
Professor Naomi Oreskes (@NaomiOreskes) of Harvard University.

Historian of science and prolific author whose works look at the nature of scientific consensus, as well as the organized disinformation campaigns to delay climate action. She wrote Merchants of Doubt. 5/
Professor John Rockström (@jrockstrom) is Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

He is a leader in developing policies for global sustainability with an emphasis on food and water resources, and 2015 Winner of the International Cosmos Prize. 6/
Professor Leah Stokes (@leahstokes) of UC Santa Barbara.

She is a political scientist and author working on energy, climate, and environmental policy. She frequently examines the role of special interests and climate denial in shaping and delaying the USA's climate response. 7/
Dr. Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) is the Director of Climate and Energy for @theBTI, a scientist with @BerkeleyEarth, and a writer for @CarbonBrief.

As a researcher and frequent science communicator, his work focuses weather, climate, energy systems and energy policy. 8/
Dr. Glen Peters (@Peters_Glen) is Research Director for the Center for International Climate Research and a leader of the Global Carbon Project.

His works provides an understanding of past and present emissions of greenhouse gases, as well as scenarios for future development. 9/
Dr. Valerie Masson-Delmotte (@valmasdel) is a Senior Scientist at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, and current co-chair for WG1 in the IPCC.

Her research uses data to reconstruct past climates, improve modeling, and better understand the future. 10/
Professor Julia Steinberger (@JKSteinberger) of Ecological Economics at the University of Lausanne.

Her work focuses on the environmental impact of social and economic activity and the development of pathways to transition to a low-carbon, sustainable economy. 11/
Dr. Robert Rohde (@RARohde) is Lead Scientist at @BerkeleyEarth.

His work focuses on placing current and historical weather observations in a climate context, as well as examining energy and air quality issues. Lead for the Berkeley Earth global temperature analysis. 12/
Dr. Heidi Cullen (@HeidiCullen) is Director of Communications & Strategic Initiatives at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.

She worked on extreme weather attribution, and now focuses on climate and ocean science communication.
Wrote: The Weather of the Future. 13/
Professor Terry Hughes (@ProfTerryHughes) of James Cook University.

He is a prolific researcher and leading expert on coral reefs and the threats posed to them by climate change. For many years, he was the Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies. 14/
The above list is not exhaustive, but it is meant to highlight a few of the talented climate scientists, who already have a large following on Twitter, but haven’t yet been @verified by @Twitter. 15/
Now, I realize that a blue checkmark on Twitter isn’t really a big deal.

But shouldn’t we be giving at least as much recognition to the experts fighting climate change - one of the world’s largest problems - as we do to minor athletes, local politicians, and obscure brands? 16/
In addition to the short list presented above, there are many, many more climate scientists on Twitter, and you can use @KHayhoe’s excellent list for discovering more. 17/

twitter.com/i/lists/105306…
Thanks for listening.

Lastly, who are your suggestions for other climate people on Twitter who also deserve more recognition than they are currently getting? 18/18

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More from @RARohde

19 May
If 2020 ends up as a new record warm year, and it might, then a significant component of that will have been the incredibly warm start of the year that has just occurred in Asia.

1/
January to April, Russia averaged nearly +6.0 °C (+11 °F) above historical norms. That's one hell of a "mild winter".

That's not only a new record anomaly for Russia. That's the largest January to April anomaly ever seen in any country's national average.

2/
In what may be a sign of worse to come later this year, the exceptionally warm winter has been followed by unusually large early season wildfires in Russia.

washingtonpost.com/world/europe/w…

3/
Read 5 tweets
8 Apr
IHME has updated their US states COVID-19 model again.

Their new best estimate for US total deaths during the first wave has fallen to 60,000 (from 83,000 two days earlier).

healthdata.org/covid
As with the last release, they expect all US states will see their initial peak at some time during April, though with some earlier than others.

A few of these have been reshuffled, with a slight overall shift towards earlier peaks.
Because the IHME model is trained on a lagging indicator, i.e. per state deaths, I haven't been surprised to see their total projected deaths be revised downward (93,000 -> 82,000 -> 60,000), and wouldn't be surprised if it goes somewhat lower still.
Read 4 tweets
7 Apr
Simplistic (and therefore probably stupid) curve fit to USA COVID-19 cases and deaths.

If you want to be an optimist, then the USA may be near the peak of its new cases, and the first wave could even be mostly over by May.
To be clear the above plot is just a dumb curve-fitting exercise, but that simple model does fit the observations pretty closely.

The IHME modeling group is also doing curve-fitting with error functions, but they go state-by-state and ultimately predict ~82,000 deaths.
A second problem with such simple modeling is that it can't really answer the question of what comes next.

If you fit an error function (or similar curve) then you are explicitly assuming that COVID-19 will just go away after the peak. That's pretty unlikely.
Read 6 tweets
2 Apr
THREAD

Let's talk a little bit about COVID-19 mortality and age differences.

Firstly, it has been clear from the early days of this disease that older people (and those with preexisting conditions) are at much higher risk.
Right now, 1 in 4 people over the age 80 diagnosed with COVID-19 has died, as have 1 in 7 over age 60.

That compares to fewer than 1 in 900 deaths for people under the age of 30.

2/
That's not to say that COVID-19 is an easy disease for young people. Even though >99% of young adults recover, both Spain and the USA have reported that ~15% of their confirmed cases in young adults have needed hospital care.

Data for Spain shown.

3/
Read 11 tweets
26 Mar
THREAD

Let's look at COVID-19 case progression in South Korea.

South Korea's remarkable testing program (365,000 tested so far) continues to look effective at bending the curve, and the number of active cases continues to fall.

Though total cases continue to grow by ~100/day.
With a little bit of math it is possible to use the reported time series of cases, deaths, and recoveries to estimate the average case trajectory in South Korea.

In other words, from the time someone is diagnosed how long does it take for the case to be resolved.

2/
First, a word of caution, these empirical estimates of case progression are less precise and reliable than doing a comprehensive case review; however, available case progression data has mostly been limited to small samples right now, e.g. thelancet.com/action/showPdf…

3/
Read 8 tweets
22 Mar
Years from now, I am sure many histories will be written about COVID-19 and the diversity of government responses to it.

What worked, what didn't, what the costs and consequences were, etc.

In the moment, it is hard to judge, though multiple approaches are evident.

1/
What's already clear is that some governments, e.g. China, South Korea, Singapore, are aiming for total suppression.

In other words, they want to find every case, isolate every sick person, tightly control the borders, and completely eliminate COVID-19's local spread.

2/
Early results for China and South Korea suggest that suppression may be possible, though it requires a massive investment in testing and contact tracing.



3/
Read 15 tweets

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