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4 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
You've probably read a lot about white voters in the GA suburbs lately. But did you know that the county with the biggest swing towards Dems this year, nationally, was Henry County, GA? Clinton won it by 4 pts, while Biden won it by 20. Some things you should know about Henry...
The first thing you should know about how Henry County, GA became the county with the largest swing to Dems, nationally is that it didn't happen overnight. Stacey Abrams swung it by 12 pts towards Dems in her 2018 gubernatorial bid, carrying it by 16.
Was there a huge surge in white college educated turnout that made Henry County, GA the biggest Dem surge county in the US? No. The white college vote share dropped very slightly, while the overall white vote share dropped by over 9 pts. It was voters of color who surged.
By the way, same story in the #2 Dem swing county in the country this year, Rockdale County, GA.
Oh... and look at the AAPI vote in Gwinnett County, GA, which was the 12th biggest Dem swing county in the US this year.

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More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier Profile picture
20 Nov
I should be more clear; NYT published an analysis this week claiming that the '20 Black vote share in GA hit its lowest level since at least '06. They were wrong.
The black vote share actually increased over 2016. The electorate, overall, was the most diverse in the history of GA. It was the white vote share that hit a new low point, yet NYT didn't mention that.
How did they reach this incorrect conclusion? They excluded the roughly 8% of Georgians who didn't identify a race when they registered to vote...
Read 6 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
20 Nov
Some have suggested that the driving force behind the GA suburbs going blue was white voters switching from Trump in '16 to Biden in '20. And yes, that was a factor, but likely not nearly as significant as has been suggested. Some evidence...
Here's a breakdown of the suburban vote in Georgia over the last 3 cycles. Note that Black, Asian, and Latino voters all increased their electorate shares substantially over '16, collectively by 3.7 pts.
Meanwhile, white non-college voters saw their vote share plummet from 2016 by a whole 5 points (that's incredible). White college voters increased slightly as a share of the electorate. Fewer white non-college suburban voters cast a ballot in GA this year than did in '16.
Read 10 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
17 Nov
This is conclusion is based on an analysis of 1/3rd of the counties in one state (NC).
In NV, which has just about complete individual vote history reported, voters under the age of 30 increased as a share of the electorate. Image
In CO, also with complete vote history, youth vote surged significantly over 2016 levels. Image
Read 6 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
13 Nov
Only Democrats would self-flagellate quite this much, having won the national popular vote by historic margins, held onto the House despite a severe pro-GOP gerrymander, and holding a chance to get to 50 seats in the Senate, a constitutional gerrymandered body.
Yes, we must learn from every election, and there are lots of lessons to learn from this one, but from the post-election takes one would think Democrats lost in a landslide. This is presumably due to the shifting frame of expectations from polls which were likely never accurate.
The polls said Dems would win in a landslide up and down the ballot. The election night results looked like the opposite was happening. Neither were accurate gauges of reality. Look at the results in the context of history, not expectations.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
13 Nov
In considering the impact of the BLM movement in the wake of George Floyd's murder, it's important to assess the data in MN, George Floyd's home. Keep in mind, MN handed Trump his second narrowest margin of defeat in '16, and his campaign believed he could win there in '20.
I've shared the national data showing a spike in Dem registrations immediately following the release of the George Floyd video and the ensuing demonstrations. A similar surge happened in Minnesota.
There was no single issue that was more predictive of presidential vote choice in Minnesota than support for Black Lives Matter. By an 8 pt margin, voters in MN had a favorable opinion of BLM. Biden won 89% of these votes, while Trump won 87% of those who had an unfavorable view.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
8 Nov
To the current debate as to whether BLM helped or hurt Dems, the truth is likely both, to varying degrees, but to blame BLM for Dem downballot losses only exposes the need for Democrats to embrace the movement more, not less.
First, the data overwhelmingly is on the side of proving BLM's positive impact for Dems. I shared the data showing a huge surge in Dem and Ind registration in late May and early June, during a time when Dems couldn't organize in person, BLM filled the gap. But that's not all...
The day after the George Floyd demonstrations began in Atlanta, younger voters saw their share of the early vote statewide in Georgia almost double. And we've seen clear evidence that youth turnout surged in the general election as well.
Read 16 tweets

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