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13 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
In considering the impact of the BLM movement in the wake of George Floyd's murder, it's important to assess the data in MN, George Floyd's home. Keep in mind, MN handed Trump his second narrowest margin of defeat in '16, and his campaign believed he could win there in '20.
I've shared the national data showing a spike in Dem registrations immediately following the release of the George Floyd video and the ensuing demonstrations. A similar surge happened in Minnesota.
There was no single issue that was more predictive of presidential vote choice in Minnesota than support for Black Lives Matter. By an 8 pt margin, voters in MN had a favorable opinion of BLM. Biden won 89% of these votes, while Trump won 87% of those who had an unfavorable view.
What's more, almost 2/3 of Minnesota voters said that "recent incidents in which police have killed or injured Black people are a sign of broader problems." Biden won 75% support among these voters.

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More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier Profile picture
13 Nov
Only Democrats would self-flagellate quite this much, having won the national popular vote by historic margins, held onto the House despite a severe pro-GOP gerrymander, and holding a chance to get to 50 seats in the Senate, a constitutional gerrymandered body.
Yes, we must learn from every election, and there are lots of lessons to learn from this one, but from the post-election takes one would think Democrats lost in a landslide. This is presumably due to the shifting frame of expectations from polls which were likely never accurate.
The polls said Dems would win in a landslide up and down the ballot. The election night results looked like the opposite was happening. Neither were accurate gauges of reality. Look at the results in the context of history, not expectations.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
8 Nov
To the current debate as to whether BLM helped or hurt Dems, the truth is likely both, to varying degrees, but to blame BLM for Dem downballot losses only exposes the need for Democrats to embrace the movement more, not less.
First, the data overwhelmingly is on the side of proving BLM's positive impact for Dems. I shared the data showing a huge surge in Dem and Ind registration in late May and early June, during a time when Dems couldn't organize in person, BLM filled the gap. But that's not all...
The day after the George Floyd demonstrations began in Atlanta, younger voters saw their share of the early vote statewide in Georgia almost double. And we've seen clear evidence that youth turnout surged in the general election as well.
Read 16 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
8 Nov
So now that we know what happened last Tuesday, the work begins to understand... what happened last Tuesday. Or, more accurately, how it happened. We often rush to draw conclusions from limited and flawed datasets, and these early false narratives can be hard to shake.
The good thing about this election is, with so many votes cast early and by mail, we will have the individual-level vote history in many states far earlier than we normally would. I've been digging into the turnout data in CO, OR, and NV, where the data is largely complete.
First, age. In all 3 states, voters <30 saw their vote share increase over '16 and '18 levels, as did voters over the >65. This is the "boomer-zoomer" coalition the Biden campaign talked about. Meanwhile, voters age 50-64 plummeted in vote share, Trump's strongest group.
Read 7 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
7 Nov
While we're waiting for "the official call", I wanted to share some really impressive stats around AAPI participation in this election, because the numbers are truly remarkable.
First, in presidential battlegrounds, 19% more AAPI voters cast a ballot in the early vote than voted in entirety in the 2016 election. The only other group to see their early vote exceed their 2016 total turnout was Latino voters, albeit by a narrower margin.
Nationally, 5% more AAPI voters cast a ballot than voted in the entirety of the 2016 election.

In every single battleground state, AAPI voters saw a bigger percent increase in votes cast, relative to '16, than any other group.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
6 Nov
Good morning! While you were (hopefully) sleeping, Joe Biden took the lead in Georgia, and now has a margin of 1,096 votes over Donald Trump.

There should be a bit under 10k votes remaining to be reported.

Any military ballots received by 5PM today will also be counted.
A follow up note - from what GA has reported, both military and overseas ballots can be received until 5PM today, but it is not the case that those received already have not been counted, for the most part. So the expectation is this does not represent a large number of votes.
We'll see where this ends up, on Wednesday I predicted Biden would end up with a lead of about 5k votes, that seems in play but may be closer to the 3,500-4,000 range.
Read 8 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
5 Nov
Since I gave up waiting for results in Georgia about 7 hours ago, they have reported 23,273 additional votes. Biden won 78% of those votes, and now trails by 18,450 votes. In every batch of votes Biden has run slightly ahead of where he needs to be to close the gap.
I don't have a count from the Secretary of State as far as outstanding ballots, but if the count they provided at 1030 PM was correct, there should be about 67k more votes left to count. Biden would need to carry those with at least 64%.
This report says there are only 25k ballots remaining, which would be 42k lower than what the SoS reported last night. Not sure why the discrepancy. If there truly are only 25k left that won't be enough for Biden to pull ahead.
Read 5 tweets

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