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Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
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4 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Oooh, is Trump gonna actually go for it?
Yet another Trump apparatchik is calling for a coup

If Trump actually goes for it and does the tanks-in-the-street thing, I predict he will come to a very bad end.
Remember, if Trump tries a "hard coup", the military will not go along with it.

That is why Trump will come to a very bad end if he tries...

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More from @Noahpinion

Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
6 Dec
1/OK, here's a thread of my latest Noahpinion blog post.

Why macroeconomic policy discussions have become less theoretical and less pro-austerity since the Great Recession:

noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-new-macr…
2/Back in 2009-13, a fair amount of the fiscal policy discussion was based on theory.

For example, a few top economists invoked the theory of Ricardian Equivalence as a reason stimulus couldn't work (they were wrong):

bradford-delong.com/2012/01/depart…

delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/04/th…
3/Back in 2013 the Bank of England even invited me to give a talk about why DSGE models weren't useful.

Things got...interesting. The Swedish central bankers were not happy with my arguments, and the BoE people stepped in to defend me... ;-)

noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/what-c…
Read 19 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
4 Dec
1/Alright, let's talk about Southeast Asia! One of the most interesting stories in the world that tons of people are overlooking!!

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/When most people think about economic development, they think of China. But Southeast Asia is coming up!

Already Singapore is super-rich, Malaysia is on the cusp of being a developed country, and Thailand isn't too far behind!
3/But the really encouraging sign is how nearly every poor country in the region is now growing steadily and exponentially.

The star performer, of course, is Vietnam, where incomes have almost quintupled since 1990.
Read 14 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
1 Dec
Even as we shift traffic stops and 911 calls away from cops, we should have more cops just walking around. This is the way they do it in Japan, and here's some evidence that it works in America too:
Beyond deterring crime, the idea is to make the cops part of the community instead of the enemy of the community.

When cops just walk around, it's possible to have lots of benign interactions with them, which increases the feeling that they're there to serve and protect.
Of course, this works both ways too. When cops spend most of their time in a community saying hi to people, giving directions, or just watching people go about their lives, it accustoms them to being a peaceful part of the community.
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
30 Nov
Of states Trump tried to contest, only Wisconsin has yet to certify. That's coming up in 2.5 hours.
After certification, Trump will continue to try to bully Republican legislatures to attempt to appoint fake electors. Those efforts will continue until the Electoral College votes on 12/14, two weeks from today.
That effort is highly likely to collapse without the "fake elector" strategy actually being tried (and that strategy would probably fail even if tried).

So after 12/14, Trump will have to decide whether to give up, or try to simply declare himself President...
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
30 Nov
I'm just still in awe of how prophetic this tweet was
See the replies to this tweet to see just how prophetic it was:

Here's one of my favorites
Read 5 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
28 Nov
The autogolpe is live! The "fake electors" strategy is happening!
Remember this thread.

The reason this will be Trump's final strategy is that A) it's the only thing that won't obviously fail, and B) It only requires bullying elected Republicans, rather than courts, appointed officials, or the military.

Of course that doesn't mean it'll succeed - it probably won't.

But Trump is still trying to overturn a free and fair democratic election, and thus the autogolpe is not over.
Read 4 tweets

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