10/Now his only question is which kind of government spending is best:
11/What happened? Why is no one invoking macroeconomic models as a reason to be worried about spending too much money?
One reason is that last time, the models essentially failed.
12/Models of debt sustainability typically assume that at some point, interest rates will bounce back from their lows. This leads the models to advocate some degree of austerity.
16/But in general, economists like to make their models about tradeoffs and limits. They like to find interior solutions.
And that means most models of fiscal policy will advocate a Goldilocks level of spending, and warn that too much is too much.
17/But now is not the time for such a cautious, not-too-big, not-too-small sort of approach.
The COVID-19 recession has made economists realize that it's time to swing for the fences.
18/And one reason they've realized this might be politics.
We're in an era of global unrest. The risk of fanning those flames with a too-small stimulus must loom large in technocrats' minds right now.
19/Someday, if and when we have better macro models, and if and when the economic costs of government spending start becoming apparent, this situation may change. But for now, macro in the real world is “GIVE PEOPLE MONEY.”
Even as we shift traffic stops and 911 calls away from cops, we should have more cops just walking around. This is the way they do it in Japan, and here's some evidence that it works in America too:
Beyond deterring crime, the idea is to make the cops part of the community instead of the enemy of the community.
When cops just walk around, it's possible to have lots of benign interactions with them, which increases the feeling that they're there to serve and protect.
Of course, this works both ways too. When cops spend most of their time in a community saying hi to people, giving directions, or just watching people go about their lives, it accustoms them to being a peaceful part of the community.
After certification, Trump will continue to try to bully Republican legislatures to attempt to appoint fake electors. Those efforts will continue until the Electoral College votes on 12/14, two weeks from today.
That effort is highly likely to collapse without the "fake elector" strategy actually being tried (and that strategy would probably fail even if tried).
So after 12/14, Trump will have to decide whether to give up, or try to simply declare himself President...