A good point. Soon, we’ll enter the months in which, historically, flu deaths have been high.
But this year, thanks to masks & lockdowns, they’ll be low.
This means that even if excess mortality vs historical baseline will be low, it won’t mean that few will have died of COVID.
But this year, thanks to masks & lockdowns, they’ll be low.
This means that even if excess mortality vs historical baseline will be low, it won’t mean that few will have died of COVID.
https://twitter.com/gianlucac1/status/1335132024777084929
Example, with random numbers.
January 2019: 200 deaths, 100 of which due to flu.
January 2021: 250 deaths.
This is not: 250-200= 50 due to COVID.
It’s 250 - (200 - ~80 of flu that got prevented) = ~130 due to COVID.
January 2019: 200 deaths, 100 of which due to flu.
January 2021: 250 deaths.
This is not: 250-200= 50 due to COVID.
It’s 250 - (200 - ~80 of flu that got prevented) = ~130 due to COVID.
In the example above, if it weren’t for face masks, it would have been 250 + 130 + additional deaths because COVID would have spread more - people who died of COVID but would have died of flu.
This result is most probably >> than baseline.
This result is most probably >> than baseline.
As always, it’s important to also consider how many people died with the prevention measures vs how many would have died without. The latter number would probably have been very high.
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