Thread by @ashishkjha

There were 225,000 new cases identified yesterday

Sat through Monday, cases will dip (usually do)

But we are now seeing Thanksgiving effect

Based on yesterday's cases alone

Expect 5K-6K hospitalizations 12/11 (if hospitals can accommodate)

and 4,000 deaths on 12/26

Thread

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1335016621111345152

225K yesterday is starting to incorporate Thanksgiving infections

After every holiday, we see cases rising Thursday/ Friday after

I expect next week’s case numbers to climb higher

Thanksgiving surge just beginning so things could get worse

But there is hope here

2/5

They could get worse because after every holiday weekend, the surge begins Thursday/Friday after

And keeps going for a while

So we could easily get to 250K cases a day and keep rising

But here's what might help

In some places, people are starting to respond

3/5

Folks are starting to pull back activity. A little

Governors starting to put in restrictions (MI, RI, CA, etc)

Places like ND have some population immunity from all their infections

And may be, therapy with antibodies begins to help some high risk folks

We can hope

4/5

Bottom line

Thanksgiving surge is starting to show up

225K cases from yesterday means 5-6K hospitalizations (in a week) and 4K deaths (in 3 weeks) likely

Whether things get worse remains up to us

Mask up, avoid indoors, & ask your elected officials to do more