Slaoui, speaking to @jaketapper, lays out an aggressive vaccination timeline
If he's right, we'll see virus spread starting to slow from growing population immunity by end of January into February
And much better by March
How?
Short thread
If he's right, we'll see virus spread starting to slow from growing population immunity by end of January into February
And much better by March
How?
Short thread
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1330513113624555522
By end of January, based on timeline laid out:
50M vaccinated
And I suspect 60M infected, recovered by then
Obviously overlap between groups
So likely at 30%+ population immunity by 1/31/2021
That'll slow spread
By end of Feb, probably 40%+
Not "herd immunity"
But
2/4
50M vaccinated
And I suspect 60M infected, recovered by then
Obviously overlap between groups
So likely at 30%+ population immunity by 1/31/2021
That'll slow spread
By end of Feb, probably 40%+
Not "herd immunity"
But
2/4
Herd immunity not like a light switch
As population immunity builds, spread slows
By 30-40% immunity, spread becomes meaningfully slower
When we get to HI threshold, infections won't "disappear" overnight
But they will stop being self-sustaining
3/4
As population immunity builds, spread slows
By 30-40% immunity, spread becomes meaningfully slower
When we get to HI threshold, infections won't "disappear" overnight
But they will stop being self-sustaining
3/4
So that's why we have to be aggressive in controlling virus through January
Feb/March: building population immunity from vaccinations on top of infections we suffered, will make things better
And by April/May, if all goes well, life will be much better!
2021
Its not 2020
Fin
Feb/March: building population immunity from vaccinations on top of infections we suffered, will make things better
And by April/May, if all goes well, life will be much better!
2021
Its not 2020
Fin
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