1. The ideal outcome @JRubinBlogger & @AliVelshi IS that the MAGA faction turns on the "establishment" part of the party & they tear each other apart. This is why only 20 M.O.Cs are acknowledging Biden- they are TERRIFIED of this. But I should make something clear & this is
2. something that @rickwtyler and this panel doesn't seem to be sending a vibe off that it gets and that is that absent some type of intraparty Civil War 2, the Republican Party is not a party in decline, heading into a sunset, its a party primed to go into the 2022 cycle & take
3. the Speaker gavel from @SpeakerPelosi! I mean, jeez guys- all of the stuff just talked about in terms of its abandonment of sanity, of the rule of law, of its dereliction of duty to the Constitution while it performs gross fealty to a swamp creature, all of that was true 1
4. month ago and what happened?? They gained 11+ House seats and potentially will hold the senate majority even though Ds had 6 pathways to it. 6! No, as craptastic as it is, despite the fact that it stood ready to execute a coup it spent months preparing for w Trump, the GOP is
5. STRONG right now. Its voters- and NOT just the nuts you see at the MAGA rallies, I'm talking about mild-mannered regular folks you run into at the bank and work with at Progressive Insurance- those folks are STOKED on the Trump Admin (albeit the Right Wing media over the past
6. decade, and esp the last 5 years, moved from conservative spin to full on alternative facts to create an alternative universe- which allows R voters to assess Trump along a set of contrived metrics that are completely fabricated and not based at all on his actual performance.
7. That's why- as early as Jan. 2019- in my NYT-op ed, Why Trump Will Lose in 2020 I said that turnout for both sides will be massive. I learned from the 2018 cycle how galvanized the Rep electorate was- that is was being fired up via negative partisanship. That is why Ds
8. underperformed in some of the 2018 senate races and lost in GA Gov and TX and FL ultimately. Watching that panel on @AliVelshi one would have the impression of a GOP descending. Please don't think like that! The potential that the party fractures over Trump's loss is our best
9. hope for this. If we get lucky, this will cause a massive 2nd Civil War in the Rep Party & distract them from focusing on the D Party. In addition to this, the electioneering/messaging/branding/offensive overhaul I am hoping to work with the DNC on will be CRITCAL to upsetting
10. what will otherwise be a bruising Midterm. If Ds go into the Midterm under the same electioneering system they've been using (as they used in the 2020 cycle) the House majority is gone. They've got to position themselves as the governing party up against a party of extremists
11. who are intentionally trying to sabotage the economic recovery playing politics and frames the Midterm as a referendum as a question on whether the GOP can be trusted with power. The American people don't know why Congress is broken. They don't know why legislation doesn't
12. come from Congress. When COVID relief legislation doesn't get passed through the whole of the fall general election season, voters are told by media that "Congress adjourned without passing anything." They aren't told- America, you need direct payments, small business grants,
13. 600 added to unemployment because if you are a middle class wage earner, unemployment comes nowhere close to replacing your wage. And do you know WHY you don't have these things? BC the Rep Party controls the senate and refuses to give it to you. In fact, the Republican Party
14. has become SO extreme that more than half of their senators want to give you NOTHING. That's right, NOTHING. Americans never hear these points. They don't hear them via a bully pulpit which could be implement due to control of the House & pressers, they don't get it in ads,
15. and they sure as hell didn't get it as the basis of the Dem's case for the 2020 general election in which you'd have thought they might have wanted to put before voters this basic fact: if you want gov to function for you- you're going to have to elect a functional party to
16. control it. Tell voters- show up, vote for this NC senate race & give us control of the senate so we can finally pass ___, ____, ___. Give voters stakes. Make them realize that there's a connection between their decision to vote & the outcomes they'll receive policy wise.
17. Take some pages out of the GOP playbook- stop making the vote micro, make it macro. Make voters see a tangible benefit to themselves. And if they're not liberals- for god's sake, make that tangible benefit money! Understand that voters DON'T know all of the current events and
18. news you know. Actually, they don't even know 1/8 of that stuff. They didn't watch the House impeachment hearings and chances are good that they didn't even read an article about it either! We, the people reading this thread, working on campaigns, reading about politics,
19. CARING about politics- we are freaks. We are not typical people. My political science students- even the majors, most of them (albeit the fact that they were young) didn't know who McConnell was. And they, themselves are far more informed that any avg. American. The GOP gets
20. this. They realize that they are working with clean slates when it comes to the electorate. They can fill those slates with anything they want. They can focus on big themes. They can tell Black voters not to vote for Biden bc of a 1994 Crime Bill vote even though he's running
21. to remove from office a man who is simultaneously to that ad, running ads on TV in WI, MI, and PA telling "suburban housewives" that they must vote Trump bc their suburban homes are under invasion (it is implied by Black robbers off camera) and only Trump can save them. The
22. The very same type of white fragility propaganda that MAKES whites likely to shoot Black people for crimes like walking with Skittles & a hoodie in the dark. The VERY worst kind of propaganda. So Ds need to refine their electioneering system and start talking to the voters
23. that actually exist and not these mythical voters that their focus group & polling data creates.

BC far from weak- the GOP is coming out of 2020 strong. IF they can shake Trump off in Jan, they will be favored to take the House w/o the changes I'll be fighting to implement.

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More from @RachelBitecofer

6 Dec
1. I love @billscher but the fact of the matter is- the reason that Ds got caught w their pants down again is bc they got dominated in the digital space.

Me in May 2019: (Note, 2019)

Parscale is using digital to target young Black & Latino men & that shit will work bc Ds are
2. completely absent when it comes to talking to their own coalition- a major mistake. Their electioneering approach is founded on a couple of broad or founding assumptions that are flawed. Which is why, at the micro (race) level- they end up w sub-par outcomes. The 1st of these
3. is that they work w this underlying assumption that the electorate is smarter (and please, understand, what I mean is CIVICALLY smart. Doesn't matter if you are IQ smart if you don't know anything about your own gov. Who your senators are. Who the gov is. How a law gets made.
Read 23 tweets
5 Dec
1. Yes, B.C. did push through NAFTA. Bill's messaging/governing strategy, that he was a "New Dem," was in response to the Dem Party's own Civil War/collapse, which happened in the late 60s & 70s in response to 2 things. The passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 & Voting Rights
2. Act of 1965- themselves capstones of the civil rights movements and the straw that broke the back of the Democrat's "unholy alliance" between liberals in the north & conservative segregationists in the South. Their alliance, known as The New Deal Coalition, was an economic-
3.based alliance, and it allowed the Dem Party to dominate national politics in Congress literally for decades, but the pressure from northern liberals over segregation grew intense and efforts to pass civil rights laws in congress, as well as Brown v Board of Edu really started
Read 13 tweets
5 Dec
1. Yes- this is the thing I really want to stress! The "not paying attention thing" it cuts across the entire demo & its a product of the totally unique world we live in right now, one that never existed before, in which people can totally select out of ANY news & info & since
2. there are no newspaper boxes to expose them to headlines, or conversations in restaurants or diners (everyone is on their phones) and no accidental exposure for people flipping through channels and accidentally running into the evening news. This is completely unique. Yes, its
3. always been true that some segment was tuned out, but before the tech we have no came along, it was hard to be THIS tuned out. And as I pointed out above, totally tuned out. Back in the 1980s, Americans had shared experiences. The conclusion of Dallas to reveal who shit JR
Read 5 tweets
5 Dec
1. Yes, @FareedZakaria's new book, Ten lessons From a Post-Pandemic World argues we don't need a big or small gov- we need a GOOD one.

We don't have that now & that is bc for decades now, the GOP has intentionally hallowed it out. Stripping it of funding under the auspice that
2. the only goal should be small. And as it turns out- that was stupid. And now we have a dysfunctional, as @maddow says, "big, bad" gov. Something that has been "wasted, and rotted and ruined." And its been intentional. Its been murdered, with no thought for how people would
3. suffer for it. COVID just put that suffering in a streamlined spotlight. But as @FareedZakaria points out- its the cherry on top of a 40 year plan that Bannon termed the final "deconstruction of the administrative state." As with the decimation of the economic tools that had
Read 18 tweets
4 Dec
1. Ok, I'm liking @RepSeanMaloney

"I sure as hell didn't win 5 Xs as a gay guy in a Trump district"

Much more imp he just correctly pointed out that even liberal MSNBC gives the GOP a major assist by constantly talking about Defund the Police, socialism, & intraparty fighting
2. and @JoeNBC is right, in my "modernized moderates" plan, you have to have these candidates go on offense. Its CRAZY that @SpanbergerVA07 is defending her record as a moderate when she's running against an ideologue in Nick Freitas.

If you ask the wrong questions & ask them
3. the wrong way, the evidence & data will screw you. Such as it did in 2020 because there is no reality in which Dem congressional/senate candidates were well-served by pulling out all their registration and in-person voter contact while the GOP was doing it. It was a bold
Read 14 tweets
2 Dec
1. Just came across a remarkably well executed article by @dylanmatt for @voxdotcom on the various forms of voter contact & the efficacy/effects of it. It was penned in Oct so before results. We had a really nice natural field experiment play out this cycle in terms of field bc
2. we've never seen a prez + congress + state leg cycle (nor would we ever, its crazy!) where 1 party did normal voter reg drives & normal field and the other just didn't. Instead, it ran, at the prez level until Oct 1 text-banking & phone-banking alts, although, & this is really
3. imp, grassroot groups, DID do field work. At least some did. And when they did, they tended to focus on the prez election, as they are wont to do in this cycle. And, as I've pointed out, in their infinite wisdom, the state party chairs of the Blue Wall + AZ all ran their own
Read 15 tweets

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