1/ Mrktplc 1.0 vs Mrktplc 2.0

Mrktplc 1.0 focusd on dmnd sourcing, price discvry, & efficiency 2 deliver consistent exprnc 2 usrs who wr, 4 d 1st tm, using intrnt 2 buy prodcts/servcs.

$BABA, $AMZN, $MELI, $JD - wr built on this underlying idea. Mktplc 2.0 is dfrnt.

Thrd 👇 Image
2/ Mktplc 2.0 focus on monetizing individuality, creativity, community etc.
$ETSY > monetize creative skills
#medium > writers monetize blogs
#TikTok > plat4m 4 bldng persnl brnd
#udemy > teaching skills
$PDD > community

Mktplc 2.0 hs unleashed a slew of internet entrepreneurs. Image
3/ Social E-Commerce (SECM) is a manifestation of monetization of individuality.

$PDD hs bn the biggest success story, $PDD went 4m a startup to $175bn mkt cap in 5 yrs.

In 5 yrs, $PDD's user base hs reached 97% of $BABA's user base, it took $BABA 2.5 decades 2 do the same. Image
4/ SECM provides a viable opportunity for individuals 2 bcm micro-entrepreneurs.

This is wht $FB & #Zuckerberg betting on through $FB shops.

China's success story hs shown that at least in developing country SECM represents a big TAM.
5/ In developing wrld, $AMZN, $BABA, $JD focusd on capturing consumers in tier-I & tier-II cities.

$PDD captured consumers in tier-I & beyond through community discounts 4 low ASP items (fruits, consumer staples etc.)

It provided value 4 money by sourcing directly 4m factory. ImageImage
6/ In Ind, a social ecom upstrt #Meesho (founded by @viditaatrey & @barnwalSanjeev) hs 10mn+ resellers on its plat4m.
#Meesho allows usrs 2 set their own microbiz w/o any capital, & tks care of all logistics.

Meesho is cls 2 hitting a unicorn status & hs secured funding 4m $FB. Image
End/ Nxt generation of mktplc r focusing on monetizing individuality.

Success of $PDD & #Meesho shows that these biz models meet an unmet demand, which $AMZN & $BABA hvnt met yet.

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More from @beyond_mental

13 Aug 20
1/ Specialty cnsmr ingredient (SCI) cos r prt of an oligopolistic mkt wid ~$90bn TAM grwing @ 4%-5%.

SCI stks hv bn lng-trm compounders - outper4mng chem. peers, S&P 500, & consumer staples.

$GIVN, $CHR.CO, $SYIEY r best SCI plyrs (all lstd in Europe).

👇Rsns 4 outper4mance ImageImage
2/ Rsn #1: Entry Barriers

- CPG plyrs work wid trusted suppliers. Reputational damage of any quality issue is enormous.

- SCI r 3%-5% of total COGS of a product. Once a given ingredient is formulated into a consumer product, recipe stays same 4 life of product. Image
3/ Rsn #2: Dominate their niches (70% of mkt controlled by 4 plyrs)
Mst SCI cos dominate a niche & invest heavily in supply chain/ R&D 2 maintain that dominance.

$GIVN: Fine Fragrances
$CHR.CO: Cultures & Enzymes
$SYIEY: Pet fd, menthol, flavor & fragrances (F&F)
$IFF: F&F
Read 8 tweets
24 Jul 20
1. After $ECPG, another boring small cap stock at attractive valuation – its $NOMD.

$NOMD is leader in European frzn food mkt (bigger than $NESN in frzn).

Trades at ~10% FCF yield with a quality mgmt team.

$NOMD is nt a ST pantry load stry but a stable cnsmr stpls story.
2. $NOMD hs dlvrd consistent LSD +ve organic grwth.

LSD org. grwth is like hitting gold in packaged fd, where mst plyrs barely grw (chck $KHC, $K, $SJM).

Frzn wl cont. 2 b grwth category bcz frzn is a) convenient, b) healthy, no additives, & c) less wstg 4 grocery store.
3. Covid is a ST tailwnd but 4 frzn it cn elevate grwth prmntly.

Covid hs led 2 incrsd trial & millennials r loving it.

If u will wrk 4m hm more often, you will consume food at home more often. And frozen is healthy & convenient.

Chck wht mgmt hs 2 say at DB conf. in Jun.
Read 6 tweets
21 Jul 20
1. $PM rprtd btr thn expctd earnings with a rebound in vol. in June.

I blv $PM has 20%+ TSR ovr nxt 12 mnths with a clear catalyst in form of buyback initiation.

$PM trades at a discount rltive to mkt & its own history. Refer to the thread for my bull thesis on $PM. Image
2. It is #IQOS - a product 95% less harmful thn cigs, which is 25% of revs.
Regulators love #IQOS & provide favrble tax trtmnt 2 #IQOS – bcz of which #IQOS is ~20% chpr thn Marlboro.

#IQOS hs monopoly in mst mkts with $BAT, $IMB & $JTI struggling to gt their version of IQOS. Image
3. Imprvmng FCF as #iQOS invstmnts stabilize.
$PM invstd bn of $ in mkting/educating regulators & cstmrs on #iQOS. As #iQOS reach a critical mass, $PM is driving dwn CAC by 25%.

EBITDA to FCF convrsn fell blw 70% - which will rcvr to 75%+ as CAPEX hs bn normalizing. Image
Read 5 tweets

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