Mrktplc 1.0 focusd on dmnd sourcing, price discvry, & efficiency 2 deliver consistent exprnc 2 usrs who wr, 4 d 1st tm, using intrnt 2 buy prodcts/servcs.
$BABA, $AMZN, $MELI, $JD - wr built on this underlying idea. Mktplc 2.0 is dfrnt.
Thrd 👇
2/ Mktplc 2.0 focus on monetizing individuality, creativity, community etc.
$ETSY > monetize creative skills #medium > writers monetize blogs #TikTok > plat4m 4 bldng persnl brnd #udemy > teaching skills
$PDD > community
Mktplc 2.0 hs unleashed a slew of internet entrepreneurs.
3/ Social E-Commerce (SECM) is a manifestation of monetization of individuality.
$PDD hs bn the biggest success story, $PDD went 4m a startup to $175bn mkt cap in 5 yrs.
In 5 yrs, $PDD's user base hs reached 97% of $BABA's user base, it took $BABA 2.5 decades 2 do the same.
4/ SECM provides a viable opportunity for individuals 2 bcm micro-entrepreneurs.
This is wht $FB & #Zuckerberg betting on through $FB shops.
China's success story hs shown that at least in developing country SECM represents a big TAM.
5/ In developing wrld, $AMZN, $BABA, $JD focusd on capturing consumers in tier-I & tier-II cities.
$PDD captured consumers in tier-I & beyond through community discounts 4 low ASP items (fruits, consumer staples etc.)
It provided value 4 money by sourcing directly 4m factory.
6/ In Ind, a social ecom upstrt #Meesho (founded by @viditaatrey & @barnwalSanjeev) hs 10mn+ resellers on its plat4m. #Meesho allows usrs 2 set their own microbiz w/o any capital, & tks care of all logistics.
Meesho is cls 2 hitting a unicorn status & hs secured funding 4m $FB.
End/ Nxt generation of mktplc r focusing on monetizing individuality.
Success of $PDD & #Meesho shows that these biz models meet an unmet demand, which $AMZN & $BABA hvnt met yet.
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$GIVN, $CHR.CO, $SYIEY r best SCI plyrs (all lstd in Europe).
👇Rsns 4 outper4mance
2/ Rsn #1: Entry Barriers
- CPG plyrs work wid trusted suppliers. Reputational damage of any quality issue is enormous.
- SCI r 3%-5% of total COGS of a product. Once a given ingredient is formulated into a consumer product, recipe stays same 4 life of product.
3/ Rsn #2: Dominate their niches (70% of mkt controlled by 4 plyrs)
Mst SCI cos dominate a niche & invest heavily in supply chain/ R&D 2 maintain that dominance.
$GIVN: Fine Fragrances
$CHR.CO: Cultures & Enzymes
$SYIEY: Pet fd, menthol, flavor & fragrances (F&F)
$IFF: F&F
1. $PM rprtd btr thn expctd earnings with a rebound in vol. in June.
I blv $PM has 20%+ TSR ovr nxt 12 mnths with a clear catalyst in form of buyback initiation.
$PM trades at a discount rltive to mkt & its own history. Refer to the thread for my bull thesis on $PM.
2. It is #IQOS - a product 95% less harmful thn cigs, which is 25% of revs.
Regulators love #IQOS & provide favrble tax trtmnt 2 #IQOS – bcz of which #IQOS is ~20% chpr thn Marlboro.
#IQOS hs monopoly in mst mkts with $BAT, $IMB & $JTI struggling to gt their version of IQOS.
3. Imprvmng FCF as #iQOS invstmnts stabilize.
$PM invstd bn of $ in mkting/educating regulators & cstmrs on #iQOS. As #iQOS reach a critical mass, $PM is driving dwn CAC by 25%.
EBITDA to FCF convrsn fell blw 70% - which will rcvr to 75%+ as CAPEX hs bn normalizing.