1/ What are the ‘new’ demands the UK says the EU has made in the Brexit talks and are they actually new? There are 3 specific areas of contention that have emerged, one each on state aid rules, the Level Playing Field/Governance, and fish. None of them should be a total surprise.
2/ First, on state aid. The UK says the EU wants the Commission and European Investment Bank to be given carve-outs from the subsidy control provisions in the deal. It says this would create an unfair imbalance, because there would be no similar exemption for British authorities.
3/ This is particularly relevant in light of the bloc's €750bn Coronavirus recovery fund. It has already been delayed by an internal political row, and the EU is keen to ensure that isn't exacerbated by legal disputes with the UK next year. Brussels denies this is anything new.
4/ The Commission is an ex ante regulator, meaning it is called in to pre-authorise state aid spending by EU countries. The EU wants the UK to set up its own independent regulator to approve subsidies in the same way. If it does so, many of the state aid problems will fall away.
5/ LPF/Governance. This is about the 'ratchet clause' which the EU has relabelled as 'equivalence' of standards. It addresses what happens if one side raises its standards on say environmental or labour rules in the future and the other doesn't, creating a competitive imbalance.
6/ The EU has asked to be able to take rebalancing measures (i.e tariffs on UK goods) in such a scenario. The real controversy over this is that it wants the Commission to have the power to unilaterally judge what constitutes 'uncompetitive' behaviour to ensure a swift response.
7/ This is widely seen as a French priority. Indeed, in an interview this morning Europe Minister Clement Beaune said: 'For our part, we are ready to put in place a system in which a divergence of standards would be allowed, but beyond which corrective measures would be taken.'
8/ The UK sees this as a roundabout way of enforcing alignment. And some EU countries are uneasy about the idea unilateral action could be taken against Britain without some form of independent legal adjudication. There is an expectation this demand won't make the final deal.
9/ Indeed, the real action in the talks is said to be around agreeing a legal framework on non-regression from current shared standards. The EU side is disappointed that the UK has so far dragged its feet on this commitment, which was included in its original negotiating aims.
10/ Finally, fish. The UK says the EU is asking for 10 years of 'unfettered' access to British waters. A few weeks ago Brussels floated the idea of a review clause, which after a decade would see shares of quotas re-evaluated in light of the balance of the wider trade deal.
11/ This is essentially just the re-emergence of that idea. The UK has offered a three-year transition period to cushion the blow to European fishermen, but Brussels is holding out for 10 years. The expectation in the end is that both sides will meet in the middle on this one.
12/ So, why the big row now? The optimists on the EU side say it's all a straw man to create the cover for a deal by mid-week. The pessimists warn the divergences are very real and there's a 'tough road ahead'. The UK insists it's serious and the EU must budge from these demands.

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More from @nickgutteridge

30 Nov
Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney not pulling his punches on Brexit. 'The British Government was offered a much longer transition period and they turned it down, yet they're now blaming the EU for it. That's just ridiculous. The decision on the timelines is very much British.'
Coveney: 'I do think a deal is possible but it needs to be finalised this week. We really are running out of time. The consequences of No Deal are so costly and so disruptive. There's a big incentive.' It needs a 'compromise agreement' on fish/LPF 'that both sides can live with'.
Coveney: 'The EU side has been respectful and consistent but also firm. The truth of Brexit is now being exposed in terms of the challenges of it. This is something the UK & EU together have to find a way forward on as opposed to focus on a blame game as regards who's at fault.'
Read 4 tweets
25 Nov
Ursula von der Leyen says there's been 'genuine progress on a number of important questions' in Brexit talks 'but I cannot tell you if in the end there will be a deal'. There's the 'outline of a possible final text' on security, social security, goods, services, and transport.
The Commission president says the three well known sticking points of Level Playing Field, Governance, and Fisheries remain unblocked. She says: 'With very little time ahead of us we will do all on our power to reach an agreement, we’re ready to be creative.'
There are 'still serious issues' on State Aid 'when it comes to enforcement' and also 'Significant difficulties remain on the question how can secure now and over time our common high standards on labour, social rights, the environment, climate change, and tax transparency'.
Read 5 tweets
6 Nov
1/ During private briefings this week Michel Barnier said the UK side has been pressing for the Brexit talks to be kicked up to a higher political level but he has pushed back, fearing No 10 wants to turn the last few days of negotiations into a 'mass bargaining session'.
2/ The EU's chief negotiator sees Britain's strategy as trying to orchestrate a 'big tug of war at the end' between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen/Merkel/Macron during which the three key topics fisheries, LPF and governance would be played off against each other.
3/ The thinking goes a leader level intervention worked for the Withdrawal Agreement, with the PM and Juncker/Varadkar, so why not do it again? Barnier said he's open to a few select topics being passed upward at the very end, but the UK wants to leave as many as 30 issues open.
Read 8 tweets
23 Oct
UK-Japan agreement includes a reference to both sides having an independent competition authority. This is something the UK side has previously resisted in talks with the EU.
The Competition chapter of the UK-Japan FTA is not covered by the agreement's dispute settlement measures, something the EU does want in its deal with the UK. But the State Aid chapter is covered by it, with the exception of one paragraph. The dispute settlement in it is binding.
The UK has argued in talks with the EU that dispute settlement measures should be limited to covering just trade in goods. So again, on state aid the UK-Japan agreement goes further than what has been proposed for a UK-EU trade deal.
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
Michel Barnier: 'The EU Council underscored to our friends and partners from the UK that the EU wants a deal. We want a deal that will be mutually beneficial to both parties in respect of the autonomy and sovereignty of both sides, a deal reflecting a balanced compromise.'
Michel Barnier: 'We will seek the necessary compromises on both sides in order to do our utmost to reach an agreement and will do so right up until the last day that it's possible to do so. Our doors will always remain open right up until the very end.'
Michel Barnier says the EU's 'principles' in the talks 'are fully compatible with the respect of British sovereignty, a legitimate concern of Boris Johnson's government. What's at stake in these negotiations is not the sovereignty of one side or the other.'
Read 6 tweets
19 Oct
Michael Gove tells MPs: 'We'd hoped to conclude a Canada-style FTA before the transition ends. As things stand that will not now happen. We remain absolutely committed..but there does need to be a fundamental change in approach from the EU if the process is to get back on track.'
Michael Gove says No Deal is 'not my preferred outcome, nor is it the PM's' and that 'we recognise there will be some turbulence'. He adds: 'But we've not come so far to falter now when we are so close to reclaiming our sovereignty.'
Michael Gove says: 'It is the case Michel Barnier has agreed both to the intensification of talks and also to working on legal texts, a reflection of the strength and resolution our PM showed.'
Read 4 tweets

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