Thread by @JRosenblattTV

Good morning #NY22 Twitter!! Let’s talk about tomorrow!

This past week has been all court filings; tomorrow we will see the culmination of all of the crazy twists and turns we’ve had so far.

A short thread on how the court could rule on #StickyGate, found ballots and more 1/

Monday at 1, NYS Supreme Court Justice Scott DelConte will hear arguments regarding the filings the Tenney (R) and Brindisi (D) teams filed this week.

Essentially, the two candidates have proposed wildly different plans for #NY22, and the justice could even decide tomorrow 2/

I’ll start with the Tenney team, as it’s the much more straightforward.

She currently leads by 12 votes, and has asked the judge to allow the counties to certify that result.

NY certified the rest of its elections in Nov, but the justice stopped this race from certification 3/

If the justice rules in Tenney’s favor, the counties will certify their results, paving the way for her to be declared the winner.

With all of the problems we’ve had with vote counts so far, I would not be 100% shocked if the counts change during the certification process 4/

Certification needs to happen regardless; Tenney is asking for it to happen now.

Brindisi’s legal team is asking for the many problems we’ve seen so far be fixed before we enter that process 5/

A quick recap of those problems: many of the 8 district BOEs have made several errors, but none potentially bigger than #StickyGate

Ignoring state law, many counties failed to mark challenged ballots individually with specific objections.

Oneida County is the biggest culprit 6/

In Oneida County, both Elections Commissioners testified they attached sticky notes to each ballot indicating this info.

Who could’ve guessed sticky notes could potentially come off during transit??

Now, there is an unknown number of ballots w/o stickies causing chaos 7/

Also at issue is what to do with the 55 early vote ballots Chenango County happened to find last week, more than a month after those ballots were cast.

Ostensibly, these were votes collected and set aside uncounted until now.

Tenney is against counting them, Brindisi is for 8/

So what exactly is the Brindisi strategy? Essentially, his team has asked the court to help fix all of these individual errors to discover the “true” numbers before the counties certify.

Tenney’s stance is these errors are too severe, and the court has no ability to fix them 9/

This brings us to tomorrow. Justice DelConte has asked each legal team to present oral arguments as to which direction the court should go.

He could rule in favor of one candidate or the other as early as late tomorrow afternoon. It’s also possible it takes longer to decide 10/

Another very real possibility is the justice decides to go in a different direction than the two have proposed altogether.

He has shown he’s not afraid of unilateral action, such as when he forced all of the counties to produce a new, final, unofficial vote count 11/

No matter what happens tomorrow, #NY22 is far from over.

There is no automatic recount in NY; a law passed this year doesn’t take effect until January.

Despite the non-zero chance this race is still happening in 2021 (there I said it), it is exempt from this law 12/

However, the new law will mandate every election within .5% will go to an automatic recount.

Considering this election is more than 10x closer than that, hard to see us not going to a full recount at some point.

Interesting to note the Brindisi campaign asked to avoid this 13/

A full recount will take a minimum of a week from the time it’s ordered, potentially longer.

That’s not even discussing the possibility the justice’s ruling is appealed by either side, which would set us up for several more weeks of litigation 14/

All this to say, the justice could issue a huge ruling Monday, he could issue a smaller one or he could not issue a ruling at all.

Either way, #NY22 won’t end tomorrow. 15/15

After doing the math, this race is actually more than a 100x closer than that .5% margin!