Thread by @mdubowitz

Thread. Nuclear versus Economic Snapbacks: How nuclear extortion beats economic pressure every time when a US president fears Iranian nuclear escalation.

1. We warned in 2015 that Iran has a nuclear snapback, a threat of nuke blackmail that would block an American economic snapback, unless a US president refused to be extorted and was prepared to go it alone.

2. We also argued in 2015 that the US economic snapback was powerful enough that you didn’t need EU or other multilateral support. Companies would choose America over Iran when put to a stark choice — and OFAC was prepared to vigorously enforce US sanctions.

3. But this economic snapback would only work if you had a US president who didn’t fear Iranian escalation and was prepared to maximize pressure even against such threats.

4. Now the incoming Biden team admits they were wrong about the power of the economic snapback when they said in 2015 that the sanctions regime would collapse without EU support.

5. But now they’re arguing that they can preemptively lift the most powerful economic sanctions by returning to the JCPOA — and reimpose them if Iran doesn’t agree to a new deal.

6. Okay, give them credit for admitting they were wrong then. But they’re wrong now. Iran’s nuke snapback, its threat to expand their nuke program if America reimposes sanctions, will defeat the threat of economic snapback. Biden team fears escalation & the mullahs know that.

7. Iran will pocket the massive sanctions relief from a return to the JCPOA, continue building to an industrial-size, advance centrifuge-powered, near-zero breakout, easier-clandestine sneakout, and refuse to agree to any more concessions.

8. And why not? The JCPOA gives them patient pathways to nuclear weapons, ICBMs, an economy increasingly immunized against sanctions pressure & regional dominance, as restrictions sunset & American leverage diminishes.

9. Iran knows its nuke snapback is more powerful than America’s economic snapback — especially under a president who fears Iranian escalation and won’t go it alone against opposition from Europeans (who fear this escalation even more and whose companies stand to make billions).

Lesson: Don’t return to JCPOA. Don’t give preemptive relief. Don’t back down in the face of nuke extortion. Use all instruments of American (and Israeli leverage). That’s only way to reach new deal that actually blocks not paves Iran’s pathways to nuke weapons & regional power.

11. One final thought: How do I know that Biden team will back down again from Iranian nuke extortion? Because that’s exactly what they’re doing now. The regime escalating nuke program & Biden team promises return to sunsetting JCPOA & lifting of most powerful economic sanctions.