Phil Syrpis Profile picture
7 Dec, 12 tweets, 2 min read
One of the root causes of the Govt's Brexit difficulties is that it has overpromised.

We can, it is said, reclaim our sovereignty, with the freedom to make our own rules, and, at the same time, retain many of the advantages of EU membership. 1/14
The reality is that we cannot.

Unless we agree to certain standards and rules (and there is scope to argue about which rules), there will be borders, and checks, and tariffs. 2/
There will always be a relationship between rights (eg tariff free access to EU/UK markets) and responsibilities (eg abiding by level-playing field commitments). 3/
A 'good' outcome for the UK, in the Govt's view, would involve access gains (eg fewer border checks) without corresponding obligations (or with weak, or difficult-to-enforce obligations). 4/
The chances of this sort of 'good' outcome are low. The EU looks likely, in the face of the threats in the Internal Market Bill and now the Finance Bill, to insist on rigorous governance provisions. [Also, such provisions are the foundation of the single market.] 5/
It is easy to understand why Vote Leave overpromised way back in 2016. They had a referendum to win.

It is far harder to understand why, in the years since 2016, there has not been a dampening of expectations. 6/
As a result of the mythologised hype, any deal will look like desperately thin gruel. It is literally impossible for any deal to live up to the expectations which Vote Leave and the Govt have spent years stoking. 9/
So, as deals hove into view, the UK finds itself unable to commit. Why? Because the Govt knows that the Brexit it is proposing to deliver does not match the claims it has made, and is still making, for Brexit. 10/
Much of the commentary underestimates just how difficult it will be for PM Johnson to sell a thin deal whose disruptive consequences will start to become apparent in a matter of days. 11/
So, he is stuck in a familiar place - overpromising and underdelivering.

I can't help thinking that he would be in a much better political place had he started toning down the Vote Leave rhetoric some time ago... 12/
...enabling a more mature debate to take place, about the UK's preferred balance of rights and responsibilities, and about the nature of the UK's continuing relationship with the EU. 13/
That debate hasn't happened. Instead, the Govt's rhetoric has pushed the UK towards an ever harder Brexit.

Lots of damage has already been done. And there will be lots more to come. 14/14

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More from @syrpis

8 Dec
There are a lot of Brexiters in the media this week making points about sovereignty, and about how the EU has not come to terms with the UK's independence.

I have some questions, which it might well be fruitful to ask them. 1/9
1. How do you understand the concept of sovereignty? What are the circumstances in which you might agree to make binding commitments to other independent states or trading blocs? 2/
2. What sort of commitments are you prepared to make in order to get trade deals with other states/blocs? And, to what end (why not trade on Australian-style terms with the wider world)? 3/
Read 9 tweets
30 Nov
The Govt's COVID analysis (attached) is, on first reading, very thin indeed.

Those looking for justifications for the restrictions in the various tiers will be disappointed. 1/4

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The Govt makes a strong case for continuing with restrictions and for the dangers of 'letting it rip'.

But it does nothing to explain why the particular decisions on education, sports, pubs, and household mixing have been made. 2/4
I would surprised if appeases any of the potential rebels... and think that the pressure to lift restrictions for particular sectors, and regions, will likely increase. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
29 Nov
The Govt, the Opposition, and the real Opposition. Some thoughts on Govt, Labour and the ERG/CRG.

Thread. 1/16
This is a Govt which is interested in the pursuit, and retention, of power (see this blog). It aims for short-term popularity, and is acutely sensitive to the public mood. 2/

blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/02…
Its policies on the 2 big issues of the day - Brexit and COVID-19 - have not been successful.

We have not secured an easy trade deal with the UK and are facing a very hard Brexit, deal or no deal.

Both deaths and the economic damage from the virus are world-beating. 3/
Read 16 tweets
24 Nov
Lots of talk again today about @UKLabour's positioning on Brexit.

I don't think that finding the right path as complicated as many seem to believe. Thread. 1/19 (sorry it is so long!)
Big picture. We have left the EU. A deal will, or will not, be done in the next month. We are facing either a 'hard Brexit' deal, or 'no deal'. There is no prospect of a 'soft Brexit' (customs union and/or single market membership). 2/
This, from @AntonSpisak on 'what to look for in any deal' is an excellent summary of the - many - live issues.

4/
Read 18 tweets
20 Nov
Quick thread on the Priti Patel bullying investigation; linking to the main documents.

TL;DR: It is not surprising that Sir Alex Allan felt it right to resign. 1/12
The starting point are the findings of the Independent Adviser (Sir Alex Allan). They are set out here:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 2/
One of the key parts...

“My advice is that the Home Secretary has not consistently met the high standards required by the Ministerial Code of treating her civil servants with consideration and respect... 3/
Read 13 tweets
18 Nov
I don't know whether it is worth going here yet again... but the core of the difficulty with Brexit lies with the nature of the referendum mandate. Short thread. 1/8
In 2016, 52% voted to leave the EU. Many, often contradictory promises were made about what leave might mean. 2/8
Among leavers there were, and are, those who favour remaining in the SM or CU, those who want a 'good' (however defined) deal with the EU, and those who want a much 'cleaner break'. 3/8
Read 9 tweets

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