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Phil Syrpis Profile picture
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30 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The Govt's COVID analysis (attached) is, on first reading, very thin indeed.

Those looking for justifications for the restrictions in the various tiers will be disappointed. 1/4

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The Govt makes a strong case for continuing with restrictions and for the dangers of 'letting it rip'.

But it does nothing to explain why the particular decisions on education, sports, pubs, and household mixing have been made. 2/4
I would surprised if appeases any of the potential rebels... and think that the pressure to lift restrictions for particular sectors, and regions, will likely increase. 3/4
The big question is what happens in the New Year... when the lifting of lockdown, the Xmas window, and migration from and to Universities, combine to lead inexorably to another rise in cases and hospitalisations. 4/4

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More from @syrpis

Phil Syrpis Profile picture
29 Nov
The Govt, the Opposition, and the real Opposition. Some thoughts on Govt, Labour and the ERG/CRG.

Thread. 1/16
This is a Govt which is interested in the pursuit, and retention, of power (see this blog). It aims for short-term popularity, and is acutely sensitive to the public mood. 2/

blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/02…
Its policies on the 2 big issues of the day - Brexit and COVID-19 - have not been successful.

We have not secured an easy trade deal with the UK and are facing a very hard Brexit, deal or no deal.

Both deaths and the economic damage from the virus are world-beating. 3/
Read 16 tweets
Phil Syrpis Profile picture
24 Nov
Lots of talk again today about @UKLabour's positioning on Brexit.

I don't think that finding the right path as complicated as many seem to believe. Thread. 1/19 (sorry it is so long!)
Big picture. We have left the EU. A deal will, or will not, be done in the next month. We are facing either a 'hard Brexit' deal, or 'no deal'. There is no prospect of a 'soft Brexit' (customs union and/or single market membership). 2/
This, from @AntonSpisak on 'what to look for in any deal' is an excellent summary of the - many - live issues.

4/
Read 18 tweets
Phil Syrpis Profile picture
20 Nov
Quick thread on the Priti Patel bullying investigation; linking to the main documents.

TL;DR: It is not surprising that Sir Alex Allan felt it right to resign. 1/12
The starting point are the findings of the Independent Adviser (Sir Alex Allan). They are set out here:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 2/
One of the key parts...

“My advice is that the Home Secretary has not consistently met the high standards required by the Ministerial Code of treating her civil servants with consideration and respect... 3/
Read 13 tweets
Phil Syrpis Profile picture
18 Nov
I don't know whether it is worth going here yet again... but the core of the difficulty with Brexit lies with the nature of the referendum mandate. Short thread. 1/8
In 2016, 52% voted to leave the EU. Many, often contradictory promises were made about what leave might mean. 2/8
Among leavers there were, and are, those who favour remaining in the SM or CU, those who want a 'good' (however defined) deal with the EU, and those who want a much 'cleaner break'. 3/8
Read 9 tweets
Phil Syrpis Profile picture
11 Nov
First the European 'Research' Group. Now the Covid 'Recovery' Group.

A quick thread on why their ideas appeal, and why they are dangerous. 1/
They appeal because they tell people what they want to hear. They propose simple solutions which people want to be true (h/t @rolandmcs).

[There's a cartoon to insert here of people choosing the easy path and falling off a cliff, which I can't find!] 2/
In relation to Brexit, they say that the UK (as a sovereign state) should have regulatory freedom. Also, it should (as now) have access to European markets. And (again as now) there is no need for hard borders, unless of course they are forced on us by 'the other side'. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Phil Syrpis Profile picture
17 Oct
The stand-off between @BorisJohnson and @AndyBurnhamGM is developing into something very interesting. Thread. 1/9
Number 10's plan has some appeal. Given where we are with COVID, and the big variation in case numbers, it makes sense, in public health terms, to have a local response. 2/9
It also makes sense, this time in a political sense, to share, or to pass, responsibility for tighter restrictions on to local politicians (I think Michael Portillo made this point on Question Time). 3/9
Read 9 tweets

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