I think there's really one case in which we'd learn something from the polls in Georgia: if they showed the GOP clearly ahead, indicating a shift in the national political environment to something like a Biden midterm
The polls don't really seem to show this so far, and therefore we're probably in the range where the polls won't help us much over the hard results from November. The changes in attitudes are too small to be precisely measured, and polls aren't good at measuring changing turnout
We could get some decent signal on changes in turnout with advance voting data, though tbh the absentee voting surge for the general will make it more difficult to parse this than you might think
Even if the partisan composition of the electorate was going to be exactly the same as the general, I don't think it's realistic to think the absentee share of the special electorate would look as it did in the general, given how much longer Dems had to sign up for the general
My expectation is that Dems will do better in-person early vote v. the general, on the assumption many general election absentee voters will still prefer to vote in advance. But we'll have to wait and see; it won't be quite as straightforward of a comparison as I'd dream
Really tough call for the fraud people here: more in-person voting means more use of Dominion machines (nvm Trump crushed the in-person vote!); more absentee voting means... whatever it is they think happens with absentee voting. Can't win!
https://twitter.com/RSmithInc/status/1335973235381444611?s=20
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