"average person eats 3 spiders a year" factoid actualy just statistical error. average person eats 0 spiders per year. Spiders Georg, who lives in cave & eats over 10,000 each day, is the AMIS. we've decided to show quantiles of the spider consumption distribution instead.
Hello! Tamara Broderick, Ryan Giordano and I have a new working paper out!! It's called "An Automatic Finite-Sample Robustness Metric: Can Dropping a Little Data Change Conclusions?" arxiv.org/abs/2011.14999
Here comes the paper thread!!! Aaaaaah!!!
We propose a way to measure the dependence of research findings on the particular realisation of the sample. We find that several results from big papers in empirical micro can be overturned by dropping less than 1% of the data -- or even 1-10 points, even when samples are large.
Also the London Review of Books is better than the New Yorker send tweet.
1. we have Lauren Oyler, who do u have? Jia?? Sad. 2. we have a Nabokov bingo square so incendiary I'd get immediately permabanned if I tweeted a screenshot. 3. we have new hits from Anne Carson
I do love the New Yorker and 2 NYer articles - one about the Bostswanan diamond mines and one about the deep sea submarine - were 2 of the best things I read all year. but LRB is better and in your heart you know it.
It's friday, it's hot as heck, nobody can do any work, it's time to read @MWillJr's paper on the impact of repealing gun permit to purchase laws on gun prevalence, gun homicides and suicides: morganwilliamsjr.com/wp-content/upl…
Purely speaking as an applied econometrician, this paper has several things that I love and the first one is the use of generalized synthetic control. This is by now the most credible approach to understanding the impact that state-level legal changes like this are likely to have
Synthetic control is still generally underused by economists, who still seem to favour using a battery of fixed effects (perhaps not realising that there is a huge cost to stripping out variation). This paper is one of very few that I've seen that avoids that common trap.
This is a really great thread for what to do if your attention span and reading comprehension and mental processing is shot to hell -- like, actually shot to hell.
I have found this general methodology to be really useful in life. Basically, if you're in location X with something (say, how much work you're able to complete in a day), you're just making it worse for yourself if you say "I'm going to get it together and do 5X tomorrow!"
Just assume in general that at best, at VERY MOST, you can expect tomorrow to be today + a 5% improvement in some direction. If you can figure out what's the right direction, then you can start aiming for your 5% improvement. Then you build on that if you keep doing it.