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Jens Nordvig Profile picture
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8 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Ok, we are ready to officially launch our blog/substack called Money: Inside and Out. We have tested it and populated with 3 initial posts, and you can subscribe here:

moneyinsideout.exantedata.com
One post, called "The Big Myth about Money and Inflation" touched on the conceptual misunderstandings around the link, and how the future may again shake things up, if monetary and fiscal expansion are (aggressively) combined.

moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/p/the-big-myth…
Another post (from today) touched on the possibility of a liquidity crisis within the Eurosystem (written by our Advisor Chris Marsh aka @GeneralTheorist)

moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/p/could-there-…
The third post, is about the 'academic' concept of velocity, which many talk about in annoying ways (also by Chris Marsh). Chris gets down dirty with the data, as usual.

moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/p/money-veloci…
Any feedback is welcome, and please spread the word widely. We want to get a lively debate on all this, a a sizable audience is a part of that. And we have set it up as a free public blog at this time, so what have you got to loose...
Thanks for the support. We hope the blog will be helpful to many, and that we will learn something new in the process of writing it, and getting feedback on it. Feedback and 'publicity' welcome... END

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Jens Nordvig Profile picture
8 Dec
Why is it important to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy (FisQEl policy, if you will):

some initial observations/thread, maybe we will have to reply in more detail on our new policy blog:

moneyinsideout.exantedata.com
First, If one macro policy operates in isolation, it can be contradicted by ‘the other’ policy. This is especially relevant with monetary policy. In the past, expansive fiscal policy was often associated with monetary tightening (=not good, if you have spare capacity, low inf.)
Policy coordination, which ensures that monetary policy, and market rates, are not ‘fighting’ the fiscal policy can help solve this problem. =>coordination is good.
Read 12 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
7 Dec
ok, BLOOMBERG, why are you so annoying???

(apologies to my friends at Bloomberg news, including the ones involved in my interview earlier today, but.....)
Why have you changed all my menus to Spanish language while I was sleeping today?

[this was the language thing that broke the camels back...so now I will do a vent-thread]
why does the fingerprinting device on the keyboard only work 20% of the time, so that I have to fingerprint on the mobile B-unit another handful of time to simply get going, every day. I pay for the service, you can at least let me use it, hassle-free?!
Read 8 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
25 Nov
The large majority of European countries have 'negative' momentum on covid cases now. But lockdown lite vs lockdown full makes a difference. We have big descents in France and the UK, vs mostly stabilization (but no strong descent) in Germany.
Also, we are still waiting for improvement (decline) in Germany's positivity ratio (hit ratio). We would expect Germany to eventually get on the path of Netherlands, with a clearer descent. But it is taking somewhat longer than expected.

The lockdown lite started 3 weeks ago, and it normally takes 2-3 weeks before results are visible. But the fact that policy makers are talking about extending the measures also shows that the descent has been surprisingly slow.

cnbc.com/2020/11/23/ger…
Read 4 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
20 Nov
Lots of confusion about why Mnuchin is cancelling certain Fed emergency credit facilities, and what it means

couple of observations...
First, the facilities in question have only small current commitments outstanding (summing them up <$18bn). This is very small in a macro context.

full list attached
federalreserve.gov/publications/f…
Second, it is not very helpful to have the Treasury and the Fed in open disagreement about this type of issue. This probably explains why markets reacted negatively.
Read 6 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
18 Nov
Closer than expected... Image
The details are here: fox5atlanta.com/news/fox5-poll…
Everybody hates polls, so adding this color:

The votes counted so far, yields 49.7% Perdue, and 48% Ossoff (so Ossoff -1.7%)

RealClear had Ossoff at +0.7% going in

So, no major difference between polling (average) and actual result for Georgia.
Read 4 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
16 Nov
There is a lag between cases & deaths, and as we see acceleration in cases, there is always a debate about whether fatalities will follow. That debate was there in the US second wave in the summer, in the European 2nd wave in recent weeks, & now again in the US 3rd wave

=thread
US cases are exploding, we all know that...

But fatalities are growing much more slowly. Does it mean that the 3rd wave is totally different?

Read 13 tweets

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