H-MINUS

What we know about Gen. Lloyd Austin:

From 2010 to 2016 he held command in both Iraq & at CENTCOM

Under his watch we saw the rise of ISIS and the rise of Qassem Soleimani’s militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen - he downplayed all.

He politicized intelligence at CENTCOM
“We couldn't get slides in front of the General on Iraq or Afghanistan before ISIS rolled into Mosul”

After Mosul, Austin downplayed the formidable terrorist army & his J2, Gen Grove, pushed DIA analysts at CENTCOM to promote “good news stories” on the counter-ISIS campaign.
From 2014-2016 Qassem Soleimani grew his militia force under Austin’s Command at CENTCOM - making it the biggest threat in Iraq.

“General Austin was a ‘Yes Man’, he wasn’t going to push back against bad policy and he didn’t"

"General Austin doesn’t want a complex...
readout of the threat - he wants one Slide.” a “Got it, Got it, Good" Slide

What we don’t know:

Austin should be asked if he supports reentry into the Iran Deal without addressing regional behavior & ballistic missiles.

Did he support the targeting of Qassem Soleimani?
Does he NOW see Iraqi militias as a threat?

Will he push back against bad policy or is he still a “Yes Man”?

We don’t know what the civilian of 4 years thinks on these issues, we do know what he’ll be told to think based on Biden’s foreign policy team so far.

H-Minus!
ATW!
To be fair, the entire Obama team downplayed the threat of ISIS & the growth of Soleimani’s capabilities in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

The team wanted no part of countering Iran in fear that the regime would walk away from the JCPOA.

This continued into the Trump Admin with McGurk
and Mattis downplaying Soleimani’s accelerated influence and capability in Iraq.

Mattis was a legend in uniform and a disappointment as a CENTCOM Commander and as SECDEF.

Austin never reached legend status in uniform and was a disappointment as both USF-I and CENTCOM commander.

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More from @MPPregent

29 May
"There are two camps in Washington about policy towards Iraq. The first camp includes Michael Knights from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Anthony Pfaff from the Atlantic Council who recommend patience & helping Kadhimi become independent of Iran."

I know both
I know both @fordrs58 and I respectfully disagree with Tony "Well. that's how Arab Governments operate" and adamantly disagree with Knights - a man who can take a pro-Iran proxy position in Iraq and an anti-one in Yemen.

But let's break this down further.
Knights said this about Maliki, Abadi, AAM, and Knights - he has no credibility with Iraqis out of power.

Pfaff makes a good argument but leaves out Iran's penetration of Iraq's economy, primacy over its security forces by proxy, and command of Baghdad's policies.
Read 18 tweets
29 May
Another attempt to make Kadhimi another Abadi and AAM - we've heard this tune before and we know how the story ends.

If Iran supports him - he's not going to be a problem. wsj.com/articles/a-new… via @WSJ
"days after taking office, he ordered a raid against a small militia that had killed a protester in the southern city of Basra, in a move seen as a sign of intent to curb more powerful factions linked to Iran."

Low-hanging fruit. Their leader, Abu Yousef isn't worried.
The leader who ordered Thar Allah to attack protesters.

"Days later, in an apparent move to reassure these Iranian-backed paramilitary groups, he visited their headquarters & praised their role in the war against Islamic State."

He looked weak & submissive in his praise...
Read 16 tweets
11 May
"Iran Is Losing Its Grip in Iraq"

This couldn't be further from reality @EliLake, not surprising when Knights is one of your sources.

Fact: The IRGC-QF, Badr, AAH, & Lebanese Hezb support him.

The largest bloc in the COR are the pro-Tehran parties.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Let's break this down:

"Kataib Hezbollah… threatened… (&) the Iraqi Parliament ignored it"

This is the Iraqi Parliament:
Badr, AAH, KIA, HaN supported Kadhimi and they are part of the largest bloc in the COR. The IRGC-QF and LH support Kadhimi & pressured other in the COR.
This is embarrassing, A LOT left out of this article:

The article left out the other 4 (3 of which are designated) militias tied to the IRGC-QF who again, make up the largest voting bloc in the COR - Badr, AAH, KIA, HaN.
Read 8 tweets
3 May
So, ISIS is attacking Sunni PMF across Iraq while the more capable Shia PMF tied to Tehran, argue that these ISIS attacks are justification for their existence.

Sunni PMF are saying they aren't being supported by Iraqi forces, Shia Hashd, or U.S. air support.

Others suggest...
ISIS fighters are being released in Syria & escorted by Kataib Hezbollah to Iraq & set free.

The view on the Sunni street is IRGC-QF militias are allowing ISIS to hit Sunni PMF to justify their narrative that ISIS is returning because U.S. killed Soleimani.

Then there's this...
IRGC-QF militias are saying the U.S. is setting ISIS prisoners free to destabilize Iraq. Well, we know this isn't true.

ISIS may be simply taking advantage of an inept Baghdad, a scared of being droned IRGC-QF proxy network hell-bent on killing Shia protesters, & Covid 19...
Read 4 tweets
7 Jan
Soleimani prolonged the Iraq War through an infiltration campaign, and solidified his control of Baghdad during the ISIS campaign. During the Iraq War. At the strategic level, Soleimani prolonged the war in Iraq by slowly taking over Iraq’s Political, Military, and
Foreign Policy portfolio.

The goal, to ensure any future Iraqi government’s decisions would be Tehran’s.

At the operational level, Soleimani directed a killing campaign against Sunni Iraqis that made it look like the U.S. was complicit.

The killers wore the Iraqi uniform.
U.S. partner units in the nascent Iraqi Army and Federal police went on a sectarian killing spree while wearing the uniforms of the American backed security forces.

Soleimani’s strategy was to have his militia leaders penetrate key positions in the Ministry of Defense and
Read 8 tweets
23 May 19
A designated terrorist is in a position to warn Iran's Qassem Soleimani of any U.S. Iraqi mission to disrupt IRGC-QF militia operations.

He has access to U.S. intel shared with Iraqi officials.

He has the ability to intimidate & disappear rivals.

He's killed Americans before.
His men are in the ranks of the ISF.

His militia is believed responsible for last weeks rocket attack vic the U.S. Embassy

You don't need to have access to intelligence to know he exists.

He has a government office & receives a government paycheck.

He is Abu Mehdi al-Mohandes
The Terrorist, Iraqis call: "The defacto Prime Minister of Iraq"
Read 4 tweets

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