Qn: What's the evidence transwomen exhibit male pattern criminality?

An odd framing of a question - surely it should be what's the evidence they *wouldn't* have male pattern criminality.

Nevertheless here's the Swedish study @GoonerProf cited /1

This is a population-based study using records from a variety of registers in Sweden in 2011. They found 324 transgender people that had undertaken sex reassignment surgery between 1973 and 2003. /2
It's a relatively small study of transsexuals - not self-identifying transgender people as Kathleen said @Docstockk

A total of 60 crimes were identified, 14 of those classified as violent crimes. Eight violent crimes had been committed by transwomen and six by transmen. /3
The results are expressed as Hazard Ratios. 1 = the same >1 = more likely. < 1= less likely.

When compared to female controls male-born transsexuals 6 times more likely to commit any crime, 18 time more likely to commit violent crime

Similar levels compared to male controls /4
Transactivists claim the author of this study disputes the conclusion that this shows transwomen exhibit male pattern criminality.

The author is quoted as saying "one observes that for the latter group (1989-2003) differences in crime disappear"

This is out of context /5
While it is correct that crime differences disappear in the latter cohort - this cohort contains transwoman AND transmen and the controls are males and females together. This data set does not tell us about male criminality of transwomen compared to men. /6
When transwomen are looked at separately to transmen the criminality pattern is clear. They more closely match the crime patterns of men not women. /7
We see a similar pattern when we look at how many transwomen are in prison have committed sexual offences.

New FOI data obtained by @fairplaywomen submitted to WESC as part of our written submission shows 76/129 transwomen in prison have at least 1 sexual conviction. /8
This matches similar patterns observed in our study in 2017 /9
Sex offending is overwhelming committed by males. There are 11892 male sex offenders in prison in England and Wales compared to 113 women.

This means almost 20% of all male prisoners have committed sex offences compared to just 3% of all female prisoners. /10
If transwomen committed sex offences at a rate similar to women we'd expect see just 4 sex offenders out of the 129 transwomen in prison today. Instead we see 76.

This is high like male pattern offending. /11
Some people dispute these conclusions saying that lots of transwomen probably don't get counted in the prison stats because if they are in for short sentences they don't reveal their trans status. So 76 represents a much smaller proportion of the total number actually there /12
But there would need to be 2404 'hidden' transwomen in prison for the 76 sex offenders to constitute the 3% female pattern of offending. This is simply not a credible argument. /13
It is clear that transwomen exhibit the same propensity to sex offending as males in general. There is no evidence that self-identifying as a women reduces that propensity and no logical reason why it should. /14
This doesn't mean all transwomen are sex offenders. It means there is no reason to treat them differently to any other male person when it comes to propensity to male violence. /15
Women have won the arguments & the right to female-only spaces for reasons of privacy, safety & fairness when needed. We don't need to justify this again.

We must be free to state that the sex of transwomen is male when sex matters in policy making & treat them accordingly /end

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More from @fairplaywomen

14 Dec
If a second @Commonswomequ trans inquiry is to be productive & worthwhile it needs to be conducted in a genuine spirit of inquiry & neutrality

Our analysis of the questions asked in the first two oral sessions suggests there is still work to do /1

MPs asked gentle, empathetic, sometimes leading questions of the trans witnesses. They expressed sympathy with their position, did not challenge or request evidential back-up for a single claim. That their sympathies lay with trans people & not women was clear from the start /2
Peter Gibson’s questions were based on the premise that the needs of trans community had simply been ignored by the government rather than fairly balanced alongside all stakeholder groups in society /3 Image
Read 13 tweets
13 Dec
NEW: Freedom of Information request confirms half of all male prisoners who identify as trans have at least conviction for sexual offending /1

Legislators and policy makers must make evidenced-based decisions to ensure the impact on all affected groups is considered, understood and fairly balanced. This means they need information on the demographics of different groups in society, including for transwomen /2
Our evidence matters in two areas of law: Equality Act 2010 & GRA2004. It helps service providers evaluate whether their single-sex service is a "proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim". It also informs legislators on the impact of GRA reform on women in prison /3
Read 13 tweets
8 Dec
Thread: Yet more scientific evidence is rolling in showing that the IOC and the sporting world seriously jumped the gun on transgender inclusion. /1

In 2016 the IOC was desperate to find an easy solution to let pre-op transwomen play women’s sport. They used weak retrospective & anecdotal data that showed a few transwomen running slower after transition - the findings of transwoman Joanna Harper /2

This led to every sport from elite to grassroots introducing new transgender policies based on lowering testosterone for 1 year. The future of women’s sport balancing on flimsy anecdotal evidence from a few trans amateur runners & cyclists. It’s now coming back to bite them /3
Read 8 tweets
7 Dec
Thread: IPSO has commissioned an independent report to find out how newspaper coverage of transgender issues has changed over time and why.

Where trans coverage used to be disrespectful and pejorative over a decade ago now it is not, but now there are new problems.... /1 Image
Journalists are now too scared to cover trans issues. Fearful of backlash on social media and transactivists.

Here is what they said /2 Image
"We’re nervous about doing coverage" /3 Image
Read 8 tweets
1 Nov
Women and girls NEED access to male-free toilets and changing rooms. This is just one of the heart-wrenching stories we've received on this topic /1
This is why we campaign for female-only spaces for women and girls. Sex matters in policy making and we make sure that never gets forgotten. You can read our other stories and resources here /2

This is why we will be submitting evidence to this government review on toilet provision in the UK. Female-only toilets are important and necessary. Mixed-sex toilets *exclude* women and girls from the services they need. /3

Read 4 tweets
1 Nov
Mermaid's associate Helen Islan (mimmymum) is smearing Fair Play For Women again. This time accusing Nic Williams of profiting from 'transphobia' and stoking a 'transphobic frenzy' /1
The irony here is off the scale. "It pays her bills"

The truth is Nic Williams has worked for 3 years full-time for FREE on our campaigns to defend sex-based rights. This has been her job for 3 yrs with NO PAY when she could have been earning a top-level salary elsewhere /2
This is not sustainable. So after getting a full-time director for free for 3 years it is now time for us to pay a small directors salary or lose her. No one can work for free indefinitely. /3

Read 20 tweets

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