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Best for Britain

9 Dec, 14 tweets, 2 min read

In May we produced a comprehensive report analysing the joint impact of a no-deal Brexit and covid-19. This is what we found 👇

The industries at particular risk of this double whammy are the manufacturing, banking, finance and insurance sectors

That’s 6.9million jobs in sectors such as manufacturing, banking & finance, distribution, hotels & restaurants and other services that could be affected

High risk areas are in the North-West, the Midlands and the South. This is definitely not a London-only issue, though London is one of the areas at high risk – 3.2million London jobs face the greatest impact from coronavirus

Politically, the double impact could be particularly significant in the so-called Blue Wall seats which Conservatives took from Labour in the General Election

The idea that the damage from a Dec 31st no-deal exit would be somehow masked by the scale of the coronavirus crisis does not stand up to scrutiny

Our report published in May uses a ‘storm warning’ scale of 1 to 5, where 5 is the most severe risk, to map the combined effects of Covid-19 and both a Free Trade Agreement and a No Deal scenario.

With an FTA large areas face a category-2 warning, with parts of the North-West, Midlands and South facing a level-3 alert, and level-4 warnings in London.

That is alarming in itself but when we look at a No Deal scenario, the picture becomes more concerning. A No Deal (or WTO) exit, plus Covid-19, leaves almost the entire country facing a level-3 alert, with vast swathes elevated to level 4

And a level 5 warning in the South and North-West. This would damage not just a few households and businesses, it puts at risk entire towns, cities and sectors

The report has much more detail than we can include in a thread – see it HERE bestforbritain.org/impactassessme…

We’ve commissioned this from independent specialists, specifically to avoid any pro-European bias creeping in.

Brexit is done but the way we complete our divorce from Europe in the time of Covid-19 will have a real, measurable and potentially disastrous impact on businesses and individuals in this country.

We simply cannot afford a no-deal when the country is still reeling from the impact of Covid-19.

Tell your MP to get the deal we were promised using this simple tool
hey-mp.uk

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Best for Britain

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8 Dec

The problem with shortages of basic items like pasta, is that we in the UK don’t have the capacity to produce our own. bbc.com/news/business-…

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This would increase the cost of pasta by 31%

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8 Dec

Back in October we published a report assessing the domestic impact of a no-deal, we found that the cost of basic goods would increase dramatically bestforbritain.org/britain2021

Using the gov’ts own figures set out in the UK global tariff regime earlier this year, we calculated that the cost of staple goods like tinned tomato and pasta would be subject to a 10-20% increase in cost

The average packet pasta would cost 65p, up from 53p

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7 Dec

@BBCDouglasF

Lambs to the slaughter: a thread.

About a third of Scottish lamb goes for export, and 98% of that is to the European Union. French chefs highly value uplands-grazed lamb. There's a metaphor somewhere in there for the Brexit talks.

Via @BBCDouglasF

But for sheep farmers, this isn't metaphor. This is their future. The average tariff on sheep meat is 48%. It is not a flat rate: instead, there's a fee per kilo and a percentage of the value.

And the more it is butchered and processed, the higher the tariff on entering the European Union. One minister suggested sheep farmers could shift to beef, to replace Ireland's sales of beef into the UK. (He didn't offer suggestions on what Ireland's beef farmers should do.)

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18 Nov

Abbott hinting that Frost should take concessions?

In today's International Trade Committee, ex-Aussie PM & official trade adviser Tony Abbott is told 'a good friend is also a critical friend' and asked what he would criticise regarding Britain's trade policy (thread). 1/5

Abbott: "The cautionary note that I gave to my public servants/negotiators back then, and I would probably give generally, is if you want a trade deal, focus on trade.

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Abbott: "If we hold out for a deal that is absolutely perfect in every respect, we might well never get it. But if we take the best we can get at this time, then that's nearly always good in itself and is the best possible platform for further progress." 3/5

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2 Nov

Food poverty: a thread.

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9 Oct

@ifgevents

Very interesting @ifgevents this morning on the future of UK-EU security cooperation. Key thing is: crime knows no borders. Hence it is absolutely crucial for the UK to exit the transition period with an arrangement in place in that area. Read more 👇

1/ For NI, Naomi Long says discussions of a possible land border has increased political tension and she is worried border checks will become a target for violence.

2/ Very important not to jeopardise excellent security relationship with RoI and wider EU - key to upholding the Good Friday Agreement and fighting organised crime and terrorism.

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