It was always pretty clear that the Lincoln Project ads that got a lot of attention were unlikely to be particularly effective wrt actual voters Joe Biden needed. Not because “Twitter isn’t real life” but because Democratic voters aren’t GOP voters. (1/N)
A lot of Democratic activists are perpetually frustrated Democrats aren’t more “aggressive” and “hard-hitting.” (I often share this view!) So they’d see a harsh LP ad and think “See, Republicans know how to throw a punch!” and assume the LP ads were *effective.* (2/N)
(There’s nothing some Democrats enjoy more than assuming Republicans are strategic geniuses.) (3/N)
But there’s a problem here.
We know there are deep differences between people who vote for Democrats & people who vote for Republicans — not just disagreements about tax policy or whatever, but core attitudinal/emotional/etc differences. (4/N)
So tones and themes that might work with Republican voters/leaners often don’t work with Democratic voters/leaners. And vice versa.
This is a core problem with a strategy of having GOP strategists make the kind of ads they do well, but to elect Democrats. (5/N)
A lot of people assumed, absent real evidence, that the LP ads were effective because they were ads made by Republican ad-makers doing what they do best. My assumption was *that was a flaw, not an asset,* because audiences differ. (6/N)
And as for Twitter virility not being a good proxy for effectiveness, again that isn’t really a “Twitter isn’t real life” problem so much as an obvious “virility simply requires some people to like it a lot regardless of whether those are the people you need to persuade” problem.
As for the LP defense that hey, those ads weren’t *intended* to persuade actual voters, but rather to get media attention … yeah, I mean, Lincoln Project’s goal of making Lincoln Project famous was never subtle, and not something Dems should’ve funded. (8/N)
TL;DR: Democrats shouldn’t fund Republicans on spec.
(9/9)
I see this defense/praise of Lincoln Project a lot, and I’ll just say I find it extremely bizarre. Donald Trump certainly doesn’t need encouragement to act crazy. This is a strategy to get booked on Morning Joe, not to affect an election.
One more postscript: Most ads have very small effects at best. It’s hard! Not being particularly effective isn’t unique to Lincoln Project.
But the widespread praise/attention/assumption of efficacy LP enjoyed *is* pretty unique.
This from Rick Wilson is transparent bullshit. Lincoln Project did not persuade 9-13 percent of Republicans to vote for Joe Biden. That’s nonsense, and printing it without pressing him to provide the “metrics” that supposedly show this is absurd. adage.com/article/campai…
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Hi. I see you’re a former prosecutor. I’m curious how many poor black defendants you decided to let history, not a jury, judge. Or is that reserved for powerful white fascists?
Putting a former Secretary of State in a sub-Sec/State international role focused on climate is a big deal, as is establishing a climate seat on the NSC.
These are both *really* good signs about the Biden administration’s seriousness about climate.
I strongly suspect I will at some point find the administration’s approach to climate inadequate, but for now, it’s weird to see people overlooking the significance of the Kerry announcement in favor of being disappointed by something it didn’t actually say (Kerry = Climate Czar)
I think some of this is people are underestimating how rare it is for a former Secretary of State to take on a smaller international role. IIRC, Baker did some Iraq-related envoy thing but I don't think that was as full-time as this seems to be. Can't think of another.
This is idiotic. You know damn well Joe Biden is going to get more votes than Donald Trump.
There are a lot of people who like Trump and other bad things. There are more people who dislike them. It is an idiotic lie to say that equals “a Trump country.”
This is extremely dumb. Donald Trump has twice run for president and twice gotten fewer votes than his opponent; his approval has never been above 50 for a day of his presidency. His supporters are a minority of Americans. There are too many of them, but it is not their country.
Democrats have won more votes in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections, so I would suggest that perhaps the people who need to get out of their bubble and spend more time with real voters are the right-wing pundits who think America is a center-right country.
(also: let this be your periodic reminder that Donald Trump has been encouraging violence against his political opponents for years, and the media has largely ignored this.)
Here is Donald Trump, who has been encouraging violence against his political opponents for years, again encouraging violence against his political opponents.
Donald Trump is spending the last days of the election encouraging his followers to violently prevent his opponents from campaigning. @jack@TwitterSupport why do you allow this?