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10 Dec, 16 tweets, 6 min read
My chapter on improving local economic development policies is published today by @econstrategygrp . This book is available for free download or you can request a free hard copy. #SecuringOurEconomicFuture economicstrategygroup.org/publication/se…
The book has 3 sections, each with several chapters. The 3 areas are: trends affecting the middle class; issues affecting particular geograpies; & climate change. The "local" section includes a chapter by @davidautor on the changing geography of middle skill jobs.
I have written much about place-based policies. What is distinct about this latest effort? This chapter focuses on backing up statistics w/ stories: narratives of successful local economic development, and successful policies, as well as failures. Stories enrich our understanding
So, the stats show that trying to help areas with low employment rates by encouraging out-migration destroys jobs by same % as population, so Emp/Pop is unchanged. But Flint, MI illustrates this is true: lots of out-migration, but Emp/Pop has gotten worse.
Research shows that bringing jobs to distressed areas can boost LR Emp/Pop. This is also shown by Freedman's research on Mississippi's "Balance Ag w/ Industry" incentives of 1930s: creation of textile/apparel jobs had persistent effects on MS Emp/Pop. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
When we target distressed areas w/ jobs, more cost-effective strategies emphasize public services to enhance business inputs: infrastructure; customized job training; business advice such as manuf extension; land development policies such as research parks, industrial parks.
But these stats are backed up by stories of successful local economic development, which usually do not mainly rely on handing out cash. Success stories I discuss include: TVA; Appalachian Reg. Commission; Lehigh Valley; Pittsburgh; Grand Rapids(MI); Crosby (MN); VA & AmazonHQ2
Better econ dev policies rest on better evaluation, more local labor market cooperation among governments, & restrictions on excessive non-targeted incentives. Examples are given of each of these.
On evaluation, @pewtrusts has successfully encouraged many states to improve evaluation of incentives. (Full disclosure: Pew has funded some of my research). pewtrusts.org/en/research-an…
On local labor market cooperation by local govts & colleges, research by Armstrong on Pittsburgh showed that such efforts played role in helping this area pivot from steel to hi-tech. PA state govt pushed this. dropbox.com/s/ep6v3rz0cqv5…
On restricting incentives, as shown by @GregLeRoy4 & @MiddleClassPoli , EU provides model for U.S., restricting incentives as % of investment/payroll, w/ tighter restrictions for large firms or less-distressed areas. Foxconn incentives illegal in EU. shelterforce.org/2019/06/17/les…
What needs to be done? We need first to target most distressed areas for job creation. Chapter map identifies the most distressed areas; as I also say in chapter, we should have more modest help for other areas beyond the mapped areas. These mapped areas are 15% of U.S. pop
We need to pivot job-creation strategies from incentives to services. We also need to link non-employed w/ jobs. One example of how to do so is "Neighborhood Employment Hubs", which locate workforce programs in trusted nbhd institutions. See p. 13 of this: upjohn.org/research-highl…
& we need to help previously non-employed keep jobs, for ex by "success coaches", who can help link disadvantaged workers w/ services such as child care or loans for car repair. See video at this link: michiganworkssouthwest.org/employers/empl…
The cost for significantly making progress on all this is on order of $23 billion per year, for at least 10 years. Such an investment is rounding error for federal budget. But states could also do, for ex by cutting incentives of $47B in half.
So Biden Admin could consider this as way to help both distressed rural areas, & distressed cities such as Detroit/Flint. And states such as CA & NY could help their distressed areas w/ cost-effective job-creation & job linkage programs.

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More from @TimBartik

Tim Bartik Profile picture
11 Dec
More specifically, the blog post fails to seriously consider the ethics of distributing vaccines by WTP, or the negative effects on public trust if an untested vaccine proved disastrous.
Now, FDA might have approved more rapid albeit imperfect tests, and considered challenge trials. And govt should have reserved more doses. But faster solutions do not require throwing out commonsense ethics & standards.
What does "thinking like an economist" mean? Some thing it means thinking only in terms of economic efficiency, narrowly defined. But, for ex., Keynes had a broader definition. In his obituary for Alfred Marshall, he stated the following:
Read 5 tweets
Tim Bartik Profile picture
10 Dec
I'd like to reup the announcement that my employer, the @UpjohnInstitute , is hiring another senior researcher, to do research related to U.S. labor markets. Here is a link to the job listing: upjohn.org/sites/default/…
For this position, we are looking to diversify our research group by hiring a senior researcher who is outside of economics, preferably someone who has expertise in qualitative research, mixed methods, or survey research.
I want to highlight one aspect of the @UpjohnInstitute that is not always understood: Most of our research is supported by our endowment, which gives researchers the freedom to develop their own research agenda within the Institute's broad mission.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Bartik Profile picture
9 Dec
Good piece by @rodrikdani on creating more good jobs. Key points: need to work on both labor supply side & demand side; services beat subsidies, in particular need to do sectoral training & services to improve business inputs; these services need to be coordinated at local level.
I participated in a seminar chaired by @rodrikdani on good jobs by @InequalityHKS . I think video will be posted soon. Here is a link to my 7-minute speech draft (pdf listed under additional files) and the powerpoints (the download button):research.upjohn.org/presentations/…
My basic point: we can do a lot to address lack of good jobs with programs that target the most distressed local labor markets, comprising 30% of U.S. population, and most distressed neighborhoods, comprising about 10% of U.S. population.
Read 15 tweets
Tim Bartik Profile picture
23 Sep
You might ask: WHY do distressed areas tend to stay distressed? Because lack of jobs leads to lower job skills and social problems; out-migration is selective and removes some younger, more skilled workers; distress undermines local tax base, reducing public services
And what is evidence for persistence? As report reviews, between 2000 and 2014-18, correlation in prime-age employment rate in local labor markets is 0.88.
Also, locally-severe recessions are persistent. Study by @BHershbein & @BryanAStuart shows that local areas w/ 5% more job loss than U.S. during recessions have, close to a decade later, an employment rate lower by 2 percentage points. research.upjohn.org/up_workingpape…
Read 5 tweets
Tim Bartik Profile picture
23 Sep
My report on helping distressed communities w/ a federal block grant is being released today by @BrookingsMetro . This report provides a plan for how federal policymakers can cost-effectively boost employment rates for residents in distressed areas. (1/N) brookings.edu/research/helpi…
To achieve the ultimate goal of boosting employment rates for residents in distressed communities, the block grant would fund both public services to help create & retain jobs, & services to help unemployed and underemployed residents access those jobs. Both are important. (2/N)
The targeted distressed communities are local labor markets w/low employment rates (employment/ population ratios) for "prime-age" workers (ages 25-54). The targeted areas have a population of about one-sixth of the U.S., & include rural & urban areas throughout the U.S. (3/N)
Read 15 tweets
Tim Bartik Profile picture
18 Aug
The belief among BOTH Dems and Repubs that middle-class tax cuts pay for themselves is astonishing.
I guess I do have to wonder whether people interpret this question, which is about LONG-RUN effects on DEFICIT, not revenue, as simply: are middle-class tax cuts "good", which means they must reduce this "bad thing", the deficit?
In other words, I see that this study by @S_Stantcheva includes considerable open-ended exploration of beliefs. I would be interested in asking someone who said "Yes, middle-class tax cuts reduce long-run deficit" about what their reasoning was on that.
Read 4 tweets

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