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Matt Braynard

@MattBraynard

20 Nov

Update:

-Residency Analysis of ABS/EV Voters

These are the two indicators of someone no longer eligible to vote due to residency:

NCOA = Voters who filed change of address to another state.
SVR = Subsequent Voter Registration in another state
Merged = NCOA+SVR Deduped

State / NCOA / SVR / Merged
AZ / 5,084 / 744 / 5,790
GA / 15,700 / 4926 / 20,311
MI / 12,120 / 1,170 / 13,248
NV / 5,145 / 3,401 / 8,502
PA / 7,426 / 7,051 / 14,477
WI / 6,207 / 765 / 6,966

The SVR component was greatly hampered by the lack of reliable DOB from state voter records and/or commercial vendors, so these numbers are all artificially low. We only matched when we had a full DOB we were confident of.

Read 6 tweets

Matt Braynard

@MattBraynard

17 Nov

Update:

- Unreturned ABS Analysis for PA

Among 1706 respondents we reached whom the state said were sent an absentee ballot, 556 said they never requested it.

And of the 1137 who did request the ballot, 453 said they mailed back yet the state did not receive or count them.

- Unreturned ABS calls for GA, NV MI, WI, and AZ will be out of the field tomorrow night at the latest (results Wednesday).

- Initial tranche of GSG funds received from Stripe ($512,540.79)

- Two loans repaid ($120,000). $60k was used to pay for initial data from Data Vendor, and $60k had been used to pay Phone Vendor A.

- Additional Invoices paid to Phone Vendor A ($235.812.19), Phone Vendor B ($8,199.98), and Phone Vendor C ($19,120.00).

Read 6 tweets

Matt Braynard

@MattBraynard

16 Nov

Update:

- We are running six different analysis across these six states. Five of them are still in progress but I believe one of them has reached the point where I can make a conclusion.

- We have not found evidence of a targeted effort to cast the ballots of deceased voters.

- I have worked with scrubbing and matching deceased data for several years and I know how frequent even seemingly reliable methods can turn up false positives.

- We applied a particularly high standard of rigor to the early/abs voters in the six target states.

- However, we did find ballots incidentally cast in the name of the deceased among otherwise inactive voters in our NCOA program.

Read 5 tweets

Matt Braynard

@MattBraynard

15 Nov

Update:

- The data for the final phone-based programs has been shipped to our call centers. This is for the *Unreturned* ABS Program which cover MI, WI, and AZ. The Unreturned program for GA and PA is complete and is nonapplicable to NV.

- This program targets those marked as receiving ABS ballots but not returning them. We ask whether or not they requested the ballot (red flag if 'no') and if ‘yes,’ did they mail them back (red flag if 'yes').

- This program is expected to complete Tuesday night.

- Our national voter file and a specialized extract based on that file for use in identifying double-voters and potential residency requirement violators is being processed by the vendor overnight and will arrive for analysis this morning (Sunday).

Read 5 tweets

Matt Braynard

@MattBraynard

13 Nov

Update:

- We are no longer asking for money as we've raised what we need to complete this project.

- As we've conducted this research, new costs were discovered (such as purchasing a national voter file) and you have all come through to ensure we had what we need.

1/4

- The best way to help now is stay in touch through this Twitter account (and Gab/Parlor) and through email and help us spread the word.

2/4

- If you donated on GSG, we have your email address. If you didn't, hit the 'pray now' button and enter your email address. A prayer is not required, but it seems to be the easiest way to make sure we can reach you via email. givesendgo.com

3/4

Read 5 tweets

Matt Braynard

@MattBraynard

12 Nov

Update:

- We've discovered the following number of early/absentee voters who filed out-of-state NCOA move notices, suggesting they may have cast illegal ballots due to no longer meeting residency requirements.

PA 7,426
GA 17,877
NV 5,145
MI 1,688
WI 6,245
AZ 5,084

1/5

- We are working to confirm correct residency for these voters and sharing our data with the campaign's legal team in several states.

2/5

- We are confident we've identified these early/absentee double voters after analyzing just a few adjacent states:

PA: 631 (Not including New York).
NV: 987

3/5

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