Michigan vs. Ohio State Football today postponed due to COVID
But a comparison of MI vs OH on COVID is useful
Why?
While vaccines are coming, we have 6-8 hard weeks ahead
And the big question is -- can we do anything to save lives?
Lets look at MI, OH for insights
Thread
But a comparison of MI vs OH on COVID is useful
Why?
While vaccines are coming, we have 6-8 hard weeks ahead
And the big question is -- can we do anything to save lives?
Lets look at MI, OH for insights
Thread
On 11/15, Michigan announced series of restrictions
Ohio didn’t
We can compare the two to see if Michigan policies helped
Why is Ohio a good comparison?
OH a neighbor of similar size, make-up (urban/rural, etc)
Here's COVID cases through 11/15
(OH in red, MI in blue)
Ohio didn’t
We can compare the two to see if Michigan policies helped
Why is Ohio a good comparison?
OH a neighbor of similar size, make-up (urban/rural, etc)
Here's COVID cases through 11/15
(OH in red, MI in blue)
The two states have tracked very closely
Similar states
Similar policies
But then, things changed mid-November
So let’s talk data (@COVID19Tracking 7-day moving avgs)
3/9
Similar states
Similar policies
But then, things changed mid-November
So let’s talk data (@COVID19Tracking 7-day moving avgs)
3/9
On 11/15, Michigan had
67 new cases / 100K population and 31 people in the hospital per 100K pop
Ohio had, per 100K pop
58 new cases, 25 people in the hospital
And as the graph shows, they were both increasing rapidly
Here's that graph again through November 15
67 new cases / 100K population and 31 people in the hospital per 100K pop
Ohio had, per 100K pop
58 new cases, 25 people in the hospital
And as the graph shows, they were both increasing rapidly
Here's that graph again through November 15
Michigan put in restrictions on 11/15
Ohio did not
What happend?
Michigan 11/15 versus 12/10
Daily cases: 67 --> 57 new cases per 100K
Hospitalizations: 31 --> 40 per 100K
Ohio 11/15 versus 12/10
Daily cases 58 -->104 new cases per 100K
Hospitalizations: 25 --> 44 per 100K
Ohio did not
What happend?
Michigan 11/15 versus 12/10
Daily cases: 67 --> 57 new cases per 100K
Hospitalizations: 31 --> 40 per 100K
Ohio 11/15 versus 12/10
Daily cases 58 -->104 new cases per 100K
Hospitalizations: 25 --> 44 per 100K
So MI: cases are down 15%, hospitalizations up 29%
OH: cases are up 79%, hospitalizations up 76%
And you know that deaths will follow in the following couple of weeks
In fact, let's look at the picture, which tells the story perfectly
OH vs MI through December 11
OH: cases are up 79%, hospitalizations up 76%
And you know that deaths will follow in the following couple of weeks
In fact, let's look at the picture, which tells the story perfectly
OH vs MI through December 11
For much of the pandemic, the two states have looked very similar
Partly because both governors did a good job managing things
When things got bad this fall, MI responded, OH didn’t
If we need more evidence that policy matters, this graph should do it
5/6
Partly because both governors did a good job managing things
When things got bad this fall, MI responded, OH didn’t
If we need more evidence that policy matters, this graph should do it
5/6
Two states, similar background, neighbors
Only big difference is in mid-November, a policy intervention
And effects are sizeable. And visible.
Obviously, its just a two state comparison
But compelling
And should remind us we know how to save lives until vaccines arrive
Fin
Only big difference is in mid-November, a policy intervention
And effects are sizeable. And visible.
Obviously, its just a two state comparison
But compelling
And should remind us we know how to save lives until vaccines arrive
Fin
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