NEW: re the previous thread and potential Provisional Application of the treaty:
Important to note that opting for Provisional Application is *not* a silver bullet to avoid a No Deal on Jan 1 if the negotiations run out of time
Important to note that opting for Provisional Application is *not* a silver bullet to avoid a No Deal on Jan 1 if the negotiations run out of time
2/ A source has said there is a "very high risk" of a No Deal interregnum in the first part of January simply because even deciding on Provisional Application takes quite a bit of time.
3/ "If you have a deal just before Christmas there isn't enough time to have the deal rolled out, even provisionally, before Jan 1."
4/ Even to provisionally apply you need to have the text finalised (ie, legally scrubbed), translated into 23 languages, the legal base needs to be agreed, then there's a Council Decision on "signature", and a Council Decision on "conclusion"
5/ "You can't just put pens down and then have the treaty instantly apply from Jan 1," says source.
6/ So what would the cut off be? I'm told that if this drags on for more than a couple of days "we will have a short period of No Deal" at a minimum because there's no way you can roll out the deal on time
7/ Also, don't forget, there is homework / procedures on the UK said as well, what in EU jargon is called "internal cuisine"
8/ "If it drags on beyond the next few days [a short No Deal period] becomes a very likely scenario," says a well placed source. "Probably the most likely scenario"
This is what Michel Barnier pointed out to EU ambassadors this morning
This is what Michel Barnier pointed out to EU ambassadors this morning
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