Jawad Mian Profile picture
14 Dec, 21 tweets, 4 min read
1) On a long enough timeline, history repeats.

This much is clear reading Will and Ariel Durant’s The Lessons of History (1968).

As they write, “The past is the present unrolled for understanding.”

Here are some lessons that stuck with me. 👇
2) The first lesson is modesty.

Human history is a brief spot in space. Man is a moment in astronomic time.

Generations of men establish a growing mastery over the earth, but they are destined to become fossils in its soil. Image
3) Life is competition. Even cooperation is a tool and form of competition.

We cooperate in our group—our family, community, party, race, or nation—in order to strengthen our group in its competition with other groups.

The earth will unite only if here is interplanetary war.
4) History is color-blind.

It is not the race that makes the civilization, it is the civilization that makes the people.

The civilized soul will reveal itself in treating every man or woman, however lowly, as a representative of one of these creative and contributory groups.
5) History (and nature) do not agree with our conceptions of good and bad. They define good as that which survives, and bad as that which goes under.
6) If history supports any theology, it would be a good spirit and an evil spirit battling for control of the universe and men’s souls.
7) Sin has flourished in every age.

In every age men have been dishonest and governments have been corrupt. Man has never reconciled himself to the Ten Commandments.
8) But in the long view of history, moral codes are universal and necessary to produce order out of natural chaos in all the fields of human life.
9) Society is based on social order, which is based on character and moral discipline which is usually associated with religious belief.

Morals deteriorate when religious belief weakens.
10) There is no significant example in history of a society successfully maintaining moral life without the aid of religion.
11) In antiquity and modernity alike, analytical thought dissolved the religion that had buttressed the moral code.

The replacement of Christian with secular institutions is the culminating and critical result of the Industrial Revolution.
12) The propaganda of patriotism or capitalism succeeds to the inculcation of a supernatural creed. Divine surveillance and sanctions are removed.
13) All economic history shows that concentration of wealth is natural and inevitable (leading to redistribution or revolution).

The struggle of socialism against capitalism is part of this historic rhythm.
14) Every advance in the complexity of the economy puts an added premium upon superior ability, and intensifies the concentration of wealth, responsibility, and political power.
15) The concentration reaches a point where the strength of number in the many poor rivals the strength of ability in the few rich.

This is an unstable equilibrium, which history has diversely met by legislation redistributing wealth or by revolution distributing poverty.
16) The Western world visibly moves to a synthesis of capitalism and socialism.

The fear of capitalism has compelled socialism to widen freedom, and the fear of socialism has compelled capitalism to increase equality.

Soon the twain will meet.
17) Utopias of equality are doomed, and the best that can be hoped for is an approximate equality of legal justice and educational opportunity.
18) Freedom and equality are enemies. When one prevails the other dies.

Paradoxically, the first condition of freedom is its limitation. Make it absolute and it dies in chaos.

If you have excess order, you still have order, but if you have excess liberty, you have chaos. Image
19) America is a democracy more basic and universal than history has ever seen. But many of the formative conditions have disappeared. Image
20) Civilizations begin, flourish, decline, and disappear. Political leaders fail to meet the challenges of change.

American civilization like any other is a transitory thing. We should not be greatly disturbed.
21) By plunging into the epochs, our hope should be to learn enough history to bear reality patiently.

Nothing surprises the student of history.
stray-reflections.com/article/164/On…

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More from @jsmian

5 Dec
1) Investing in a bull market is hard enough; hearing it trivialized makes it unnecessarily harder.

In our latest issue, we discuss the far more powerful underlying forces, some outside of common understanding, that are at play.
2) The pandemic is a major displacement that will go down in history as setting new trends and social forces that spark a major bull market and mania.

We are still early in this uptrend.

stray-reflections.com/article/168/Th…
3) While the world balks at America’s failed response to a coronavirus pandemic, their economic management may yet prove to be superior.

stray-reflections.com/article/167/Am…
Read 5 tweets
5 Dec
1) The ancient Greek philosopher Epictetus said, “Be silent for the most part.”

What did he mean? Allow me to explain.

Thread. 👇
2) On August 29, 1952, the piano virtuoso David Tudor walked onto the stage of the barn-like Maverick Concert Hall on the outskirts of Woodstock in New York.

He sat at the piano, propped up six pages of blank sheet music, closed the keyboard lid, and clicked a stopwatch.
3) Thirty seconds passed.

The audience, a broad cross-section of the city’s classical musical community, waited for something to happen.
Read 24 tweets
4 Dec
1) In Greek mythology, Cassandra was a princess of the legendary city of Troy, and the most beautiful of King Priam’s daughters.

She was seduced by Apollo, who gave her the ability to predict the future.
2) When she refused herself to him, he cursed her by making people disbelieve her predictions.
3) So she went around knowing and predicting the future, telling people what was going to happen, but no one ever believed her.

She foresaw the fall of Troy, but couldn’t prevent it.
Read 13 tweets
26 Nov
1) One finds cultures founded on guilt (typically in the Judeo-Christian world), cultures founded on submission (Islam), and cultures founded on shame (typicallyin Asia).
2) There exists another culture, one without borders that encompasses all. Taking people’s stoicism captive, it seeps through everyday life and breeds disdain.

Such is our culture of complaint.
3) There is much to complain about: life, politics, treasonous friends, and, of course, work!

On any given day, all these topics come up.
Read 19 tweets
23 Nov
Since it’s been a year of lingering regrets for investors, I explain why regret persists in a bull market. 🤬stray-reflections.com/article/153/Wo…
1) Are you regretting not shorting the pre-pandemic February highs, buying too soon as the market crashed, buying too little around the April lows, or selling too early as stocks keep advancing?
2) To invest, it seems, is to accumulate at least some regrets.
Read 23 tweets
21 Nov
Before we got married, my wife complained that I write for everyone except her. 🤦🏽‍♂️

So I decided that each year, on our wedding anniversary, I’ll gift a new chapter to her in a lifelong book.

Now I’m writing chapter eight. ❤️
1) Funny story about the book.

Worked like a charm for our first anniversary. My wife loved the whole concept.
2) My smart ass idea was now I can just gift her a new chapter each year.

No more hassle of thinking about what to get for our anniversary.

This was the gift that keeps on giving.
Read 10 tweets

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