3/ At the time, the lack of thought and poor economic design of the $COVER token was the nail in the coffin for me.
I know many others shared my view. However, we all missed something.
We underestimated the team's ability to learn from their mistakes.
4/ Since then, they've corrected their mistake and have maintained a breakneck speed of execution, now forming numerous partnerships with other protocols and being the go-to insurance channel for higher-risk yield farmers.
5/ I guess looking back, the lesson here is to always give people a second chance (or even third). Most people won't surprise you, but those that do will be worth it.
Perhaps being open-minded enough to reconsider a formed bias is also important.
6/ Now at $70m mkt cap and $120m FDV, they've shown me that winners can come from anywhere.
Do I own any $COVER? No.
Will I buy some now? Probably not.
But I do think of it as the one that got away, and I hope I'll remember this lesson in the future.
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Right now ~$2.3bn funds are deployed farming UNI, with $ETH being the reference token.
This means that there is currently ~$1.1bn ETH locked up, about to be released into the wild.
Where do you think that ETH will go?
2/ Whilst a large portion of current TVL will stay in the same pools (fees generated are juicy), I posit a reasonable amount of ETH will leave the Uniswap system in search of higher yields.
Nobody knows numbers at this point but 50% of TVL leaving may be within reason.
3/ If this holds true, ~$500mm ETH will be on the market. They can:
A): Stake elsewhere ($SUSHI/$ALPHA/ETH 2.0 etc)
B): Remain in holder wallets (unlikely)
C): Be sold for stables / altcoins