Phil Kerpen Profile picture
15 Dec, 8 tweets, 3 min read
The @MoCoCouncilMD will vote on @MontCoExec's restaurant shutdown order today. If they care about facts and science, they'll vote no. A few points:
Hospital utilization is low according to the county's own metrics.
And COVID hospital census appears to have peaked a week ago.
That the infective peak has passed is supported by the % positive trends in the county, state, and region.
Contact tracing studies now consistently show spread is overwhelmingly in private homes and negligible in restaurants.

Any effect of pushing holiday gatherings out of (strictly distanced) restaurants and into homes is more likely to increase than decrease transmission.
Meanwhile, more than half of the county's all-time COVID deaths are in nursing homes, where the case fatality rate is more than 12 times higher than in the general population.

Want to save lives? Focus on vaxing the nursing home residents and similar vulnerable seniors.
The Marc Elgrinch restaurant shutdown order comes post-peak (to claim an undeserved policy victory) and is more likely to do harm than good. Vote no @MoCoCouncilMD.
They approved it unanimously.

Fact-free zone, embarrassing. Models over reality, still. Definition of insanity. Pathetic. Idiotic.

Hope somebody sues.

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More from @kerpen

13 Dec
HHS PCR testing dataset updated for the first time in a week (mostly - DC didn't update). Here's the northeast. Image
Northern Rockies and Plains Image
Ohio Valley; Tennessee still sharply rising Image
Read 6 tweets
10 Dec
DC reports 4 deaths with COVID. Now 23 total in December.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 244 / 5,326 4.58%
7-Day: 2934 / 47,842 4.04%
14-Day: 3362 / 94,632 3.55%
28-Day: 5591 / 186,303 3.00%
Total COVID-19 Patients in DC Hospitals: 217
Total COVID-19 Patients in ICU: 57
Total Patients in DC Hospitals (COVID and non-COVID): 2,189
DC deaths with COVID by race
Read 4 tweets
6 Dec
DC reports 2 deaths with COVID. Now 12 total in December.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 264 / 7,246 3.64%
7-Day: 1688 / 44,291 3.81%
14-Day: 2985 / 104,101 2.87%
28-Day: 5135 / 179,184 2.87%
Total COVID-19 Patients in DC Hospitals: 171
Total COVID-19 Patients in ICU: 50
Total Patients in DC Hospitals (COVID and non-COVID): 2,070
DC deaths with COVID by race
Read 4 tweets
4 Dec
DC reports 1 death with COVID. Now 8 total in December.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 316 / 8,251 3.83%
7-Day: 1543 / 45,803 3.37%
14-Day: 2672 / 106,038 2.52%
28-Day: 4688 / 171,919 2.73%
Total COVID-19 Patients in DC Hospitals: 194
Total COVID-19 Patients in ICU: 51
Total Patients in DC Hospitals (COVID and non-COVID): 2,128
Read 5 tweets
4 Dec
Census/CDC Mental Health Survey: 21.6% report taking prescription medication for mental health in the last four weeks, and rising.
data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Mental-He…
West Virginia tops the list at 32.1% taking medication for mental health.
DC tops in therapy.
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec
United States Deaths by Age, February 1 to November 28, 2020. Data as of December 2. Image
By age and sex Image
Read 7 tweets

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