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David Henig Profile picture
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16 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
UK-EU latest, deal still in the balance as a few difficult areas remain, EU ratification still a puzzle, implementation still a puzzle.
Interesting to note fishing and future proofing of level playing field still outstanding - where the political problems are most acute. Don't count on the deal just yet.
This remains the crux of the deal or not. It is still not completely clear if the UK have accepted or not, as it breaches original UK red lines. Then if resolved some fish splitting and fudging all ways round.
Always bear in mind when the EU negotiates that it wants to win the principle but can then be surprisingly flexible with the implementation. Thus on Northern Ireland the UK conceded checks but with a big trusted trader scheme. So for LPF and quite possibly fish.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
17 Dec
The sense of Brexiteer opposition to concessions necessary to make a trade deal melting away through a combination of tiredness and increasing awareness of the realities to come. And we know the EU can close deals, they have more than anyone else.
The future question for the UK of whether we will learn from the experience, learn how to negotiate with the EU, or continue to listen to the partisan advisers whose advice was so badly wrong for four and a half years?
What did we gain from not coming to terms with EU asks earlier? Arguably there would have been more domestic opposition, as we weren't ready then to compromise. But perhaps then the lesson is we need to be internally united before negotiating?
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
16 Dec
Just as I was thinking we hadn't seen an update for a while... we're not quite there yet with a deal. And even further away in working out how you go from deal to implementation in 10 days including Christmas. (10 days for 1800 pages!).
I think this maybe more difficult than presented, if only because of concerns in the domestic constituencies of both sides of giving too much away to get a deal, with no proper ratification. That path to a deal might be getting pretty narrow.
Still probably just about 55:45 for a deal. Or maybe 52:48. But that is not at all comfortable given the timing.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
16 Dec
As we'll increasingly discover the international trade that takes place within the EU is very different to the international trade that takes place outside. Globally there is only free trade within the EU, outside there is trade with an awful lot of barriers.
As consumers the forthcoming change of trade with the EU is obvious. We wouldn't on an ordinary basis import from the US due to extra costs. But the extra costs from the EU have been negligible. Now it will be more like trade with the US.
At an economy wide level we don't know the impact of leaving the EU on exports and imports. But it is assumed that both will reduce relatively. Possibly both to the EU and globally, because of the regional nature of most trade.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
15 Dec
Not sure of the exact impact of this backdown, but very slowly the government is having to accept realities with regard to trade and Brexit, whether in terms of devolution, the Northern Ireland protocol, and quite possibly an EU trade deal.
The UK can leave the EU. But we can't leave Europe, and while there is an EU we'll have to deal with it. As the smaller party. We can trade globally. But it will always be easier to trade regionally. Facts, however many 'glorious global Britain smashes EU' articles appear.
I presume those MPs celebrating the "freedom clause" were unaware that the original EU draft text contained no commitment for the UK to have to follow EU rules in Labour and the environment, except not to lower levels of protection. Image
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
15 Dec
One note of caution. This is the third time I have heard of such buzz and the previous two were clearly false alarms. And they were the same, eurosceptics being assured they would be happy.

The UK side record of judging talks has to date been poor. But we shall see.
Ah, the UK might have 'won' a mechanism almost certainly on the table since June. Renewed government effort to see how many backbenchers really care? (NB it was never going to be unilateral withdrawal of preference because that doesn't suit the EU).
Reminder: The EU wanted a joint commitment to upholding roughly equal standards and the possibility of protecting themselves with tariffs if this didn't happen. If today's rumours are correct the UK has successfully negotiated what the EU wanted.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
15 Dec
Mexico joins Canada and South Korea as EU trade agreements replicated for the UK but with a commitment to a new negotiation.

Next year's FTA negotiation list is therefore these plus Australia, New Zealand, US, CPTPP, EFTA, possibly Turkey (dependent on EU deal).
Her Cabinet colleagues must hate the sight of Liz Truss taking so much credit for work on replicating EU deals that officials have been putting in since 2016 on which she has to do basically nothing.
The story on replicated trade agreements taking shape is a slow start that would have meant falling well short at the original March 2019 deadline, but the extra 21 months making all the difference. Another story, to the best of the my knowledge, is that nobody has read them all.
Read 5 tweets

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