Thread by @OJRenick

As I wrote for @Delphi_Digital last year, I'm a #bitcoin buyer at new highs. I am still unconvinced of the coiner dream scenario, but the potential for real breakout now deserves a very small portion of my PA. #WelcomeToTheDarkSide

https://twitter.com/OJRenick/status/1324794745722425344

// The reason is simple. Technicals are huge for bitcoin, and breaking above the 2017 bubble high is a monumental event on the chart that opens the door for a big run. It should also be a nice offset to a few other intermediate-term trades I have fading risk assets.

// To be clear, I still view #bitcoin as a high-risk asset & assign a very low probability to the best-case scenario coiners dream of. It's unclear if we just got a false breakout in $NDX, & $btc could be doing the same. It really needs to find support at 20k to be in the clear.

// The most bullish $btc scenario I see is if it breaks out & stocks drop. That would mean bitcoin is actually doing something different than risk assets. That's what happened in Oct, when I started describing it positively for the 1st time on @TDANetwork:

https://twitter.com/TDANetwork/status/1318910030016557058?s=20

/// If that happens, it means investors would rather own a pseudo-alt-currency than U.S. companies, which suggests we're indeed endangering our system through aggressive policy that has potential to backfire. Odds of this have climbed, but not convincing yet.

// Finally, it has to be said: with the giant amount of stimulus at work and sentiment readings at records across just about every measurement, a false breakout in $NDX and $btc would be absolutely devastating for bulls in both. Need confirmation ASAP.