What's happening with the data about the vaccine? Well, let's put it this way: there's a lot to sort out

A THREAD on my reporting today
This is Dr Elliot Singer, a GP in Waltham Forest. If anyone can be called a community doctor, it’s him. He wasn’t just born locally, he was delivered by the GP who used to have his practice

He’s delighted to be delivering the vaccine, but the tech is causing “huge frustration“
There are numerous software systems involved with vaccination, but two are central. 1. Recording who's had the vaccine (and which vaccine, what batch etc). 2. Inviting and booking patients for appointments - what's known as "call and recall"

There are problems with both
The data recording is done by a system called Pinnacle. It arrived last week and there've been problems ever since. There are issues with access. It also keeps crashing

One senior health official told me the IT was “failing constantly”
As a result, a lot of the data capture is being done by hand, before being entered into the system. Yes, that’s right, in 2020, vaccine data is being coached with pen and paper

From a data point of view, this is barbaric. But to Dr Singer, the real cost is the wasted time
"We’re all getting really frustrated. It’s just not helping to deliver the programme,” he said

The practice keeps people outside as much as possible👇

“It's not nice weather and we've got old people standing out in the cold waiting to get their vaccine because of these delays”
If you're looking for a reason for the government hasn't been regularly releasing the numbers of people who are vaccinated, this issue is probably it

I don’t want to speculate too much but from what I’m told the figures put out today may be *very* provisional
But the other issue is potentially much bigger

Call and recall is absolutely central to delivery of a vaccine - and multiple sources, including Dr Singer, say there isn't a call and recall system for the vaccination programme

It was asked for months ago, but it hasn't arrived
If call and recall goes wrong, then people could get missed or even (although this is very unlikely) double dosed

That’s not happening now (we hope) because GPs have figured out workarounds. But, just as with the data recording, the real cost is time
None of the systems talk to each other, so Dr Singer’s admin staff are making appointments with one system, then manually entering them into another, then doing it all again for the second vaccine

Lots of potential for mistakes. Lots of wasted time
This is still early days and I'm assured by people close to the system that things will improve

But we've heard that before - and in the meantime, time is passing, just when we need things to move quickly

More here in written form
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
And in TV form if that’s your thing
Thanks as ever to the incredible team who turned such unpromising material into telly
Producer: @SkyNewsValerie
Editor: Alf Bowles
Camera: Martin Smith
Graphics: Jonathan Toolan
Shout out to @RichardVaughan1 and @DavidParsleyPW who've been doing fantastic work in this area. Some great reporting here in particular inews.co.uk/news/health/co…
In case you missed my story about the technical issues with the vaccine rollout, here it is - now with an updated comment from NHS England
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
And here is @JonAshworth asking about it earlier in the House of Commons parliamentlive.tv/event/index/00…

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More from @rowlsmanthorpe

15 Dec
I just wish I knew what an online harm actually was
Funny to see the online harms bill positioned as a blow against big tech when it will give them the power to make sweeping decisions on enforcement while simultaneously making it much harder for smaller competitors
Rule of politics: displays of strength are often signs of weakness. Online harms delegates many aspects of justice to tech companies. It's effectively an admission that the state can't do the work itself
Read 13 tweets
14 Dec
Cold take: mutations happen all the time. I would like more information on this new variant, especially before it's linked to the rise of cases in the south east
The expert view on the variant is considerably more cautious than Matt Hancock's

As so often, @alanmcn1 puts it best. Catching this variant is a tremendous achievement, but study is ongoing, so *it is important to keep a calm and rational perspective*
sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reactio…
Based on this and conversations with experts it seems as if the idea that the strain is faster-spreading is mainly conjecture

It's been found in the SE, where cases are rising, but *any* variant will be found in the the place with most cases. Correlation ≠ causation
Read 4 tweets
21 Nov
After news of lockdown leaked on 30 October, something changed in England. Right across the country, people started to go out

Over the next five days, movement surged in towns and cities

A short thread on a mass phenomenon
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
Using Google data, it's possible to track movement in different regions of the UK

Looking at the period between the leak and lockdown starting, the clarity of the trend is striking

Take Norwich, Derby and Blackburn with Darwen. Three very different areas, one unified response
With some notable exceptions (looking at you Cornwall), the whole of England responded in this way

Take Southampton, Cambridge and Hull. Again, three very different areas. But in this period they moved as one
Read 12 tweets
19 Nov
NEW: leaked slides show the "path to Christmas" for Test and Trace

Items on the list include "rebuild public trust" and "reset our relationship with local authorities"

We were told it would be world-beating. With problems like this, is Test and Trace even fit for purpose?
The slides were presented in a video call hosted by Test and Trace's most senior executives, including Dido Harding

This is the plan - aka the "countdown to Christmas" - in more detail

Note the distinct lack of detail under the local council element 👀
My story on the Christmas "reset"

DHSC has been approached for comment - will post that when it arrives
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
Read 6 tweets
14 Nov
Yesterday SAGE released a one-page document called "potential trajectories for covid-19 in the next six months"

It's not going to brighten your day, but it's one of the best summaries of where we are and where we're heading

Some notes 🧵
1. The “first” and “second” waves are very different

The second is growing much slower because of the impact of social distancing. Before this lockdown, contact rates were about half of pre-lockdown levels

But that's still not low enough.
2. Social distancing needs to be very extensive

SAGE: “With a basic reproduction number of 3, controls need to reduce infectious contacts by two thirds”

For a rough sense of what they means in practice, here's a chart of movement in London. It's been above 33% since June
Read 10 tweets
1 Nov
Incredible story in The Times, which I'm told is definitely true. For most of its existence, the contact tracing app for England and Wales has been using the wrong risk threshold, so it's hardly been sending out any alerts telling people to self-isolate
thetimes.co.uk/article/softwa…
One of the biggest complaints about the app has been ghost messages saying "you've been near someone with covid-19". If the risk threshold hadn't been artificially high, many of those alerts would have been instructions to isolate

As it was, people were told to ignore them
The Times has described this as a software bungle. I understand the issue was incredibly human. There was meant to be a change to the risk threshold on the app, but no-one went in and made the update
Read 7 tweets

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