What's happening with the data about the vaccine? Well, let's put it this way: there's a lot to sort out
A THREAD on my reporting today
This is Dr Elliot Singer, a GP in Waltham Forest. If anyone can be called a community doctor, it’s him. He wasn’t just born locally, he was delivered by the GP who used to have his practice
He’s delighted to be delivering the vaccine, but the tech is causing “huge frustration“
There are numerous software systems involved with vaccination, but two are central. 1. Recording who's had the vaccine (and which vaccine, what batch etc). 2. Inviting and booking patients for appointments - what's known as "call and recall"
There are problems with both
The data recording is done by a system called Pinnacle. It arrived last week and there've been problems ever since. There are issues with access. It also keeps crashing
One senior health official told me the IT was “failing constantly”
As a result, a lot of the data capture is being done by hand, before being entered into the system. Yes, that’s right, in 2020, vaccine data is being coached with pen and paper
From a data point of view, this is barbaric. But to Dr Singer, the real cost is the wasted time
"We’re all getting really frustrated. It’s just not helping to deliver the programme,” he said
The practice keeps people outside as much as possible👇
“It's not nice weather and we've got old people standing out in the cold waiting to get their vaccine because of these delays”
If you're looking for a reason for the government hasn't been regularly releasing the numbers of people who are vaccinated, this issue is probably it
I don’t want to speculate too much but from what I’m told the figures put out today may be *very* provisional
But the other issue is potentially much bigger
Call and recall is absolutely central to delivery of a vaccine - and multiple sources, including Dr Singer, say there isn't a call and recall system for the vaccination programme
It was asked for months ago, but it hasn't arrived
If call and recall goes wrong, then people could get missed or even (although this is very unlikely) double dosed
That’s not happening now (we hope) because GPs have figured out workarounds. But, just as with the data recording, the real cost is time
None of the systems talk to each other, so Dr Singer’s admin staff are making appointments with one system, then manually entering them into another, then doing it all again for the second vaccine
Lots of potential for mistakes. Lots of wasted time
This is still early days and I'm assured by people close to the system that things will improve
But we've heard that before - and in the meantime, time is passing, just when we need things to move quickly
And in TV form if that’s your thing
Thanks as ever to the incredible team who turned such unpromising material into telly
Producer: @SkyNewsValerie
Editor: Alf Bowles
Camera: Martin Smith
Graphics: Jonathan Toolan
In case you missed my story about the technical issues with the vaccine rollout, here it is - now with an updated comment from NHS England news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
I just wish I knew what an online harm actually was
Funny to see the online harms bill positioned as a blow against big tech when it will give them the power to make sweeping decisions on enforcement while simultaneously making it much harder for smaller competitors
Rule of politics: displays of strength are often signs of weakness. Online harms delegates many aspects of justice to tech companies. It's effectively an admission that the state can't do the work itself
Cold take: mutations happen all the time. I would like more information on this new variant, especially before it's linked to the rise of cases in the south east
The expert view on the variant is considerably more cautious than Matt Hancock's
As so often, @alanmcn1 puts it best. Catching this variant is a tremendous achievement, but study is ongoing, so *it is important to keep a calm and rational perspective* sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reactio…
Based on this and conversations with experts it seems as if the idea that the strain is faster-spreading is mainly conjecture
It's been found in the SE, where cases are rising, but *any* variant will be found in the the place with most cases. Correlation ≠ causation
Yesterday SAGE released a one-page document called "potential trajectories for covid-19 in the next six months"
It's not going to brighten your day, but it's one of the best summaries of where we are and where we're heading
Some notes 🧵
1. The “first” and “second” waves are very different
The second is growing much slower because of the impact of social distancing. Before this lockdown, contact rates were about half of pre-lockdown levels
But that's still not low enough.
2. Social distancing needs to be very extensive
SAGE: “With a basic reproduction number of 3, controls need to reduce infectious contacts by two thirds”
For a rough sense of what they means in practice, here's a chart of movement in London. It's been above 33% since June
Incredible story in The Times, which I'm told is definitely true. For most of its existence, the contact tracing app for England and Wales has been using the wrong risk threshold, so it's hardly been sending out any alerts telling people to self-isolate thetimes.co.uk/article/softwa…
One of the biggest complaints about the app has been ghost messages saying "you've been near someone with covid-19". If the risk threshold hadn't been artificially high, many of those alerts would have been instructions to isolate
As it was, people were told to ignore them
The Times has described this as a software bungle. I understand the issue was incredibly human. There was meant to be a change to the risk threshold on the app, but no-one went in and made the update