What's the main hurdle? Fish
Barnier has doubled down in front of MEPs
Demanding demanding 8 year transition with fishing quotas remaining more or less unchanged
If UK then cuts quotas in annual negotiations - especially in the 12 nautical mile zone then it is trade sanctions Image
Listening to some of these MEPs, it is worth recalling that in July the EU rejected Frost's suggestion not to go for zero tariffs or quotas. Barnier said that even if it was like Japan or Canada, EU would still demand exactly the same
Important point from Barnier
"It is hardly surprising that at this stage we find the negotiations are difficult.”
In the public pronouncements from both sides, I suspect there is much in the way of misdirection

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More from @BrunoBrussels

20 Dec
The government has created a mutation monster as the frontiers now shutting because of the scare - Dutch, Belgian and German travel bans so far…
Marc Van Ranst, the Belgian virologist - and no stranger to sounding the alarm himself - has had 4 cases in his lab and sees the mutation as a “minor variant” only
“The new variant in England does not cause any additional concern,”
Belgium will close airports and Eurostar terminal from midnight for 24 hours as precautionary measure. “We don't have a conclusive answer yet,” said the PM De Croo
Read 8 tweets
19 May
Some analysis on the big risks and battles ahead for Merkel and Macron over the historic Franco-German accord on a pandemic recovery fund
The 500bn fund is far from being a done deal and needs unanimous support of all 27 EU countries and there is strong opposition, including questions over its legality (although details are thin on the ground)
It avoids the taboo for Germany and others of taking on the national debt of countries like Italy by issuing German bonds to covering foreign borrowing. Instead taps legally established route of using EU budget to raise and disburse the cash
Read 17 tweets
18 May
Macron/Merkel plan would require extra national form all EU27 guarantees to MFF 2021-2027 worth 165bn
That would be leveraged into a fund worth 500bn
If paid out as grants, that 500bn would have to be paid back in total by all 27 via contributions or EU taxes
French argue that could be over a 40 year period - with no repayments at all for 3 years
To avoid burden of extra time EU budget contributions there could be new European taxes to pay it off
With a repayment schedule outside the MFF, as Germany has said, that suggests an SPV
Read 4 tweets
27 Mar
Last night's #EUCO revealed that a pandemic will not be enough to overcome the traditional rifts, divisions and constraints of the eurozone
Italian PM Conte told other EU leaders “don’t bother” with traditional bailouts or ESM credit lines that come attached with austerity conditions and loss of sovereignty as in the last eurozone debt crisis
That's significant. After over five hours of acrimony, EU leaders gave up and have asked eurozone finance ministers to come up with a plan over the next 10 days. It is not clear what
Read 13 tweets
19 Feb
Letter from Phil Hogan, the trade commissioner, to Dutch MPs on Ceta/Canada trade deal undermines EU argument on special, bespoke "level playing field" structures for post-Brexit trade deal
rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/bri…
He wrote to assure them because of concerns over fair competition, he insisted Ceta did not need "monetary or trade sanctions" to enforce standards, like the sort of measures asked of UK
"I would like to emphasise that Ceta’s rules on environment and labour are solid and anchored in a vast network of underlying international conventions and agreements"
Read 6 tweets
25 Oct 19
France is emphasising (again) that question of duration, terms of the Benn act, can not be separated from purpose or justification
Tusk leaves soon and will replaced by Michel who agrees with Macron
No deal is firmly back on the table - if not next week then in the new year
France can live with Jan 31 2020 but only if there is ratification or elections not if the Westminster deadlock continues status quo ante
Macron will not support Remain via extension tactic of Tusk and Merkel, he can set terms now or later because he has veto & is waving it
EU regret at tactical alliances with Benn and other Labour retainers has been building
thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-off…
Read 4 tweets

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