Thread by @WillHayCardiff

There is a real chance that many of Wales' pubs will not be opening again until the spring.

This is why:

[Thread]

From close of play on Christmas Day, all pubs/ bars/ restaurants/ cafes in Wales will be closed except for takeaway as part of the level four lockdown that comes in officially on December 28.

When Wales comes out of level 4 depends on a range of nuanced factors but simply put while the following metrics showing, Wales will stay in lockdown:

- More than 300 cases per 100,000 people rolling 7-day average
- Positivity above 10% over 7 days
- R rate at one or above

To go down to level three we need to get to here:

- Between 150 cases per 100,000 people rolling seven-day average and 300.

- Test positivity over seven days needs to be between 5-10%. That means the infection rate will have to be less than half where it is currently (562).

The earliest this could happen is at the first three week review after lockdown comes in.

That would be January 18.

If ministers are not confident enough at that point to lift the Tier 4 lockdown, it could continue until the second three week review on February 8.

But even when we drop down to level three the outlook for pubs is still really bad.

At level three there is still a 6pm hospitality closing time and an alcohol ban in pubs and restaurants.

So in order to start selling booze, hospitality will need to be down to level two.

In order to do this we will need to be at between 50 and 150 cases per 100,000 people, test positivity rate between 3- 5% and no rapid growth in cases for over 60s.

For context, you have to go all the way back to October 1 to get an overall rate of 75 cases per 100,000 across the whole of Wales.

The next three-weekly lockdown review date after February 8 would be March 1.

So if things go well, March 1 looks like a very significant date for the hospitality industry.

But even at level two pubs are under heavy restrictions....

At level two, pubs and restaurants can serve alcohol again but only where it is part of a substantial meal. Plus premises must shut by 10.20pm.

So even after all this time, pubs that don't sell food, will not be able to realistically open as they can only sell soft drinks.

Only when we reach level one, which involves under 50 cases per 100,000 (not seen since early September), can pubs reopen and sell booze without a meal.

Even then a 10.20pm curfew for pubs and restaurants remains in place.

Things are looking really bleak for hospitality right now, even with the package of support the Welsh Government have announced.

Full story here:
walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-new…