In case you missed our livestreamed briefing earlier, here's @Kit_Yates_Maths brilliant presentation of the latest figures. Warning: if you're in the mood for festive cheer, look away now. Thread 1/15
This is not a good situation, cases are high and they are rising rapidly
Recorded cases are increasing in every nation
Percentage of positive cases: Wales, England & Scotland all rising
London, South East and East of England have the highest case rates, overtaking North West and North East
This is not an artefact of increased testing. Positivity rates are increasing everywhere, with the exception of Yorkshire
Cases per 100,000 people for all local authorities in England. Orange dots show this week's figures, grey dots last week's. Cases have risen almost everywhere
This plot shows local authorities currently in Tier 2. The vast majority have seen a rise in cases. It suggests that Tier 2 has not been effective in bringing cases under control
Tier 3 does a better job of controlling things but has still seen rises in vast majority of regions. This is the most worrying slide of all as it suggests that even our toughest set of measures is not enough to slow spread of virus
New hospital admissions per day in England. There was a dip as a result of lockdown in Nov but hospitalisations have been rising for last couple of weeks
Hospital occupancy in England: unless we take evasive action after Christmas, it's extremely likely we'll exceed the peak we saw in April
Hospitalisations are increasing across all regions with possible exception of the North West
Deaths in English hospitals within 28 days of positive Covid test: starting to go up and will continue to rise for several weeks
Vaccination is the one good news story we have at the moment so it's surprising the govt isn't making more of an effort to publicise these figures
Summary: SAGE has suggested that infection rates could double over Christmas. We're going to need to take measures to protect ourselves, our loved ones and our communities

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More from @IndependentSage

18 Dec
Is it safe to see relatives at Christmas? What do the members of #IndependentSAGE think? And what are they personally choosing to do?
1/ First up, @Kit_Yates_Maths: "I have an 80 year old dad and a 70 year old step-mum, so we're taking the decision not to see them, even though it's legally allowed. For me, the risk is too great."
2/ @GabrielScally: "We'll see one of my daughters in the garden or outside somewhere... we've come through so much this year, it would be so wrong to risk anything at this point in time."
Read 8 tweets
18 Dec
We can't promise festive cheer but we can give you the facts to make an informed choice on how best to keep your loved ones safe this Xmas. With @theAliceRoberts & @Kit_Yates_Maths crunching numbers. pscp.tv/w/cqtVCDFNV0V3…
We are live and @Kit_Yates_Maths is presenting the week's figures: 'This is the worst set of data I've presented so far, things are deteriorating quite rapidly and tiers are not keeping things under control'. Join us
'Even the toughest set of measures (Tier 3) is not enough to slow the virus down, which is extremely worrying' @Kit_Yates_Maths
Read 9 tweets
20 Nov
1/ Presentation of the week’s figures from @chrischirp. Some positive signs but a lot of regional variation. Coming out of restrictions will be hard
2/ Hospital admissions: sustained decreases in NI & Scotland, Wales plateauing. In England we saw a slowdown end of Oct/start of Nov, then a rapid increase and it’s now (just) starting to reduce again.
3/ High admissions have meant numbers of people in hospital are continuing to go up and we aren’t that far from April peak. Hopefully if admissions keep dropping, these numbers will start to come down soon which will be important for NHS
Read 13 tweets
13 Nov
LIVE NOW. How optimistic should we be about new vaccine? With @mslucycooke, special guest @JonAshworth, latest figures from @chrischirp & @ProfBambra presenting our new report on inequalities. pscp.tv/w/cn0wbjFNV0V3…
Welcome! We are live and @chrischirp is presenting the week’s figures
It's unlikely deaths will come down over the next week or two
Read 38 tweets
30 Oct
Independent SAGE - live via Restream.io pscp.tv/w/cmq9MzFNV0V3…
Welcome, we are live and @chrischirp is talking us through the latest numbers
There is no doubt that Covid is continuing to spread
Read 30 tweets
23 Oct
It's not too late but we must act now. Independent SAGE sets out plan to fix failing Test & Trace and answers your Qs on transmission in schools. With @theAliceRoberts. Latest figures from @chrischirp pscp.tv/w/cmFzwDFNV0V3…
Welcome all, we are LIVE and @chrischirp is talking us through the week’s figures.
Read 35 tweets

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