1/
What I expect for TSLA next week:
🟢 Bullish scenario: if there's a significant index buying shortfall as the numbers below suggest, then a post-inclusion rally might begin on Monday.
🔴 Bearish scenario: if that's wrong then @garyblack00's 10-20% pullback is possible too.
What I expect for TSLA next week:
🟢 Bullish scenario: if there's a significant index buying shortfall as the numbers below suggest, then a post-inclusion rally might begin on Monday.
🔴 Bearish scenario: if that's wrong then @garyblack00's 10-20% pullback is possible too.
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1340253912012615680
2/
The bearish scenario is weakened by these facts:
Any short term hedge funds driving a 10-20% correction had:
✅ 47m buy liquidity in AH to sell @ ~$680
✅ 69m liquidity to sell @ $695 on the close
Why didn't they sell? 🤔
The bearish scenario is weakened by these facts:
Any short term hedge funds driving a 10-20% correction had:
✅ 47m buy liquidity in AH to sell @ ~$680
✅ 69m liquidity to sell @ $695 on the close
Why didn't they sell? 🤔
3/
There's two main explanations:
✅ either hedge funds are confident about higher TSLA prices next week
✅ or the HF-selloff hypothesis was false to begin with, as explained by former large hedge fund quantitative equities and derivatives trader below.
There's two main explanations:
✅ either hedge funds are confident about higher TSLA prices next week
✅ or the HF-selloff hypothesis was false to begin with, as explained by former large hedge fund quantitative equities and derivatives trader below.
https://twitter.com/Tesla_Tizzler/status/1339524641476538368
4/
Here's further explanation about why most large hedge funds were not trading TSLA substantially this year, and why they likely didn't substantially buy into the S&P 500 inclusion event either.
Here's further explanation about why most large hedge funds were not trading TSLA substantially this year, and why they likely didn't substantially buy into the S&P 500 inclusion event either.
https://twitter.com/Tesla_Tizzler/status/1339859389499510784
5/
If that is true, then $8t active funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 - who have a large aggregate shortfall of TSLA shares - were big participants in the S&P 500 inclusion event and took liquidity away from passive index funds.
This might also explain the failed closing cross.
If that is true, then $8t active funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 - who have a large aggregate shortfall of TSLA shares - were big participants in the S&P 500 inclusion event and took liquidity away from passive index funds.
This might also explain the failed closing cross.
6/
The bearish scenario is strengthened by the fact how easily market participants swung TSLA down by -7% before swinging it back up +10% to the +6% $695 close.
Active funds, with TSLA now in their benchmark index officially, might absorb such swings & discounts in the future.
The bearish scenario is strengthened by the fact how easily market participants swung TSLA down by -7% before swinging it back up +10% to the +6% $695 close.
Active funds, with TSLA now in their benchmark index officially, might absorb such swings & discounts in the future.
7/
The bullish scenario is strengthened by the fact that historically many large S&P 500 inclusions were followed by post-inclusion rallies:
✅ 1999: YHOO +35% rally
✅ 2013: FB +6% rally
✅ 2018: TWTR +17% rally
✅ 2020: ETSY +35% rally
The bullish scenario is strengthened by the fact that historically many large S&P 500 inclusions were followed by post-inclusion rallies:
✅ 1999: YHOO +35% rally
✅ 2013: FB +6% rally
✅ 2018: TWTR +17% rally
✅ 2020: ETSY +35% rally
8/
Macro effects will loom large and can be bullish or bearish factors - but let's remember one important thing:
From Monday TSLA is among the top 10 biggest constituents of the S&P 500, and is part of the biggest "macro" index!
Congratulations to every Tesla investor!
🥳🎂🎈
Macro effects will loom large and can be bullish or bearish factors - but let's remember one important thing:
From Monday TSLA is among the top 10 biggest constituents of the S&P 500, and is part of the biggest "macro" index!
Congratulations to every Tesla investor!
🥳🎂🎈
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
